Toronto Maple Leafs at Edmonton Oilers, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors EDM; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Maple Leafs- Auston MatthewsGoals1
- Pontus HolmbergAssists2
- Auston MatthewsPoints2
Oilers- Ryan McLeodGoals1
- Ryan McLeodAssists1
- Evan BouchardPoints2
Scoring summary
- P318:27Evan Bouchard Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: none2–4
- P316:55Ryan McLeod Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Connor McDavid (42), Cody Ceci (11)2–3
- P32:27Derek Ryan Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Ryan McLeod (10), Mattias Janmark (5)2–2
- P215:41Leon Draisaitl Goal (21) Backhand, assists: Evan Bouchard (31), Mattias Ekholm (14)2–1
- P210:52Morgan Rielly Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Auston Matthews (16), Pontus Holmberg (5)2–0
- P10:27Auston Matthews Goal (34) Wrist Shot, assists: Mitchell Marner (29), Pontus Holmberg (4)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P10:27Auston Matthews Goal (34) Wrist Shot, assists: Mitchell Marner (29), Pontus Holmberg (4)TOR 1 – 0 EDM · TOR 44% → 59% +15TOR 44% → 59%+15 pts
- P210:52Morgan Rielly Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Auston Matthews (16), Pontus Holmberg (5)TOR 2 – 0 EDM · TOR 66% → 83% +16TOR 66% → 83%+16 pts
- P215:41Leon Draisaitl Goal (21) Backhand, assists: Evan Bouchard (31), Mattias Ekholm (14)TOR 2 – 1 EDM · EDM 15% → 32% +17EDM 15% → 32%+17 pts
- P32:27Derek Ryan Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Ryan McLeod (10), Mattias Janmark (5)TOR 2 – 2 EDM · EDM 28% → 53% +26EDM 28% → 53%+26 pts
- P316:55Ryan McLeod Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Connor McDavid (42), Cody Ceci (11)TOR 2 – 3 EDM · EDM 51% → 95% +44EDM 51% → 95%+44 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Oilers 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- EDM 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- EDM 59%
- Fair odds
- EDM -126
- TOR +126 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 2.9 – 3.3 EDM
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | EDM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1502 | 1530 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +14 | +15 | TOR: Martin Jones: team allows 0.34 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈11 weighted starts) · EDM: Stuart Skinner: team allows 0.36 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈22 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | EDM +64 Elo | EDM 59.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | EDM 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | EDM 55.8% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| TOR | Stat | EDM |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 313.6 | Goals scored | 3.56th of 31 |
| 19th of 313.3 | Goals allowed | 3.012th of 31 |
| 12th of 31+0.3 | Margin | +0.56th of 31 |
| 8th of 3151.7% | Shot share | 55.1%4th of 31 |
| 18th of 3190.2% | Save percentage | 89.8%22nd of 31 |
| 19th of 314–6 | Last 10 | 10–01st of 31 |
| 15th of 319–9 | Road vs home | 10–711th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.