Vancouver Canucks at Columbus Blue Jackets, NHL forecast
You didn't pick this one.
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CBJ; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Canucks- J.T. MillerGoals1
- J.T. MillerAssists1
- J.T. MillerPoints2
Blue Jackets- Dmitri VoronkovGoals2
- Johnny GaudreauAssists2
- Dmitri VoronkovPoints2
Scoring summary
- SO0:00Kirill Marchenko Goal Poke0–1
- P310:57Dmitri Voronkov Goal (9) Backhand, assists: Jack Roslovic (8)3–3
- P27:35Elias Pettersson Goal (23) Wrist Shot, assists: J.T. Miller (40), Quinn Hughes (41)3–2
- P23:28Dmitri Voronkov Goal (8) Tip-In, assists: Adam Boqvist (7), Johnny Gaudreau (21)2–2
- P114:54Conor Garland Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Teddy Blueger (13), Dakota Joshua (10)2–1
- P15:55Yegor Chinakhov Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Johnny Gaudreau (20)1–1
- P15:28J.T. Miller Goal (20) Slap Shot, assists: Nikita Zadorov (9)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P15:55Yegor Chinakhov Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Johnny Gaudreau (20)VAN 1 – 1 CBJ · CBJ 37% → 52% +15CBJ 37% → 52%+15 pts
- P114:54Conor Garland Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Teddy Blueger (13), Dakota Joshua (10)VAN 2 – 1 CBJ · VAN 48% → 65% +16VAN 48% → 65%+16 pts
- P23:28Dmitri Voronkov Goal (8) Tip-In, assists: Adam Boqvist (7), Johnny Gaudreau (21)VAN 2 – 2 CBJ · CBJ 34% → 52% +18CBJ 34% → 52%+18 pts
- P27:35Elias Pettersson Goal (23) Wrist Shot, assists: J.T. Miller (40), Quinn Hughes (41)VAN 3 – 2 CBJ · VAN 48% → 68% +19VAN 48% → 68%+19 pts
- P310:57Dmitri Voronkov Goal (9) Backhand, assists: Jack Roslovic (8)VAN 3 – 3 CBJ · CBJ 18% → 51% +33CBJ 18% → 51%+33 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Blue Jackets 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CBJ 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CBJ 41%
- Fair odds
- CBJ -109
- VAN +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- VAN 3.1 – 3.2 CBJ
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | VAN | CBJ | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1555 | 1456 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −5 | −3 | VAN: Casey DeSmith: team allows 0.13 more goals than with its usual starter (≈11 weighted starts) · CBJ: Elvis Merzlikins: team allows 0.07 more goals than with its usual starter (≈18 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | VAN +62 Elo | VAN 58.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CBJ 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CBJ 52.2% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| VAN | Stat | CBJ |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 313.8 | Goals scored | 3.021st of 31 |
| 2nd of 312.6 | Goals allowed | 3.830th of 31 |
| 1st of 31+1.3 | Margin | −0.728th of 31 |
| 22nd of 3148.5% | Shot share | 46.0%27th of 31 |
| 3rd of 3191.7% | Save percentage | 89.7%23rd of 31 |
| 6th of 317–3 | Last 10 | 2–827th of 31 |
| 4th of 3115–9 | Road vs home | 8–1528th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.