Seattle Kraken at Columbus Blue Jackets, NHL forecast
You didn't pick this one.
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CBJ; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Kraken- Jared McCannGoals2
- Oliver BjorkstrandAssists2
- Jared McCannPoints3
Blue Jackets- Ivan ProvorovGoals2
- Kirill MarchenkoAssists1
- Ivan ProvorovPoints2
Scoring summary
- P318:55Eeli Tolvanen Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Yanni Gourde (11), Oliver Bjorkstrand (22)7–4
- P312:29Emil Bemstrom Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Kent Johnson (8), Andrew Peeke (6)6–4
- P38:28Brian Dumoulin Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Justin Schultz (9), Alex Wennberg (11)6–3
- P36:17Jared McCann Goal (16) Wrist Shot, assists: Jaden Schwartz (10), Brian Dumoulin (6)5–3
- P213:42Oliver Bjorkstrand Goal (12) Snap Shot, assists: Jared McCann (10), Justin Schultz (8)4–3
- P29:45Tye Kartye Goal (8) Tip-In, assists: Vince Dunn (27), Yanni Gourde (10)3–3
- P24:43Kirill Marchenko Goal (14) Slap Shot, assists: Adam Boqvist (6), Johnny Gaudreau (19)2–3
- P115:31Jared McCann Goal (15) Snap Shot, assists: Oliver Bjorkstrand (21)2–2
- P112:10Ivan Provorov Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Kirill Marchenko (10), Andrew Peeke (5)1–2
- P111:37Jordan Eberle Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Adam Larsson (11), Tomas Tatar (11)1–1
- P11:41Ivan Provorov Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Adam Fantilli (14)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P115:31Jared McCann Goal (15) Snap Shot, assists: Oliver Bjorkstrand (21)SEA 2 – 2 CBJ · SEA 31% → 47% +16SEA 31% → 47%+16 pts
- P24:43Kirill Marchenko Goal (14) Slap Shot, assists: Adam Boqvist (6), Johnny Gaudreau (19)SEA 2 – 3 CBJ · CBJ 53% → 71% +18CBJ 53% → 71%+18 pts
- P29:45Tye Kartye Goal (8) Tip-In, assists: Vince Dunn (27), Yanni Gourde (10)SEA 3 – 3 CBJ · SEA 28% → 48% +19SEA 28% → 48%+19 pts
- P213:42Oliver Bjorkstrand Goal (12) Snap Shot, assists: Jared McCann (10), Justin Schultz (8)SEA 4 – 3 CBJ · SEA 48% → 69% +21SEA 48% → 69%+21 pts
- P36:17Jared McCann Goal (16) Wrist Shot, assists: Jaden Schwartz (10), Brian Dumoulin (6)SEA 5 – 3 CBJ · SEA 77% → 93% +17SEA 77% → 93%+17 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Blue Jackets 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CBJ 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CBJ 47%
- Fair odds
- CBJ -114
- SEA +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 3.0 – 3.2 CBJ
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | CBJ | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1493 | 1460 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +19 | −6 | SEA: Joey Daccord: team allows 0.49 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈18 weighted starts) · CBJ: Daniil Tarasov: team allows 0.15 more goals than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +23 Elo | SEA 53.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CBJ 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CBJ 53.4% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| SEA | Stat | CBJ |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 312.8 | Goals scored | 3.021st of 31 |
| 8th of 312.9 | Goals allowed | 3.730th of 31 |
| 18th of 31−0.1 | Margin | −0.728th of 31 |
| 20th of 3149.4% | Shot share | 45.9%27th of 31 |
| 8th of 3191.2% | Save percentage | 89.9%21st of 31 |
| 3rd of 318–2 | Last 10 | 3–723rd of 31 |
| 20th of 319–11 | Road vs home | 8–1428th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.