St. Louis Blues at Calgary Flames, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CGY; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blues- Brandon SaadGoals2
- Nick LeddyAssists3
- Nick LeddyPoints3
Flames- Yegor SharangovichGoals1
- Yegor SharangovichAssists1
- Yegor SharangovichPoints2
Scoring summary
- P319:12Brandon Saad Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Colton Parayko (9), Nick Leddy (14)4–3
- P36:56Jordan Kyrou Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Robert Thomas (31), Nick Leddy (13)3–3
- P217:13Brayden Schenn Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: none2–3
- P212:17Yegor Sharangovich Goal (20) Wrist Shot, assists: Jonathan Huberdeau (20), Elias Lindholm (23)1–3
- P211:13Noah Hanifin Goal (8) Slap Shot, assists: Yegor Sharangovich (14), Chris Tanev (8)1–2
- P28:27Brandon Saad Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Colton Parayko (8), Nick Leddy (12)1–1
- P111:38MacKenzie Weegar Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Rasmus Andersson (20), Nazem Kadri (22)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P111:38MacKenzie Weegar Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Rasmus Andersson (20), Nazem Kadri (22)STL 0 – 1 CGY · CGY 55% → 70% +15CGY 55% → 70%+15 pts
- P28:27Brandon Saad Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Colton Parayko (8), Nick Leddy (12)STL 1 – 1 CGY · STL 27% → 46% +19STL 27% → 46%+19 pts
- P211:13Noah Hanifin Goal (8) Slap Shot, assists: Yegor Sharangovich (14), Chris Tanev (8)STL 1 – 2 CGY · CGY 54% → 73% +20CGY 54% → 73%+20 pts
- P36:56Jordan Kyrou Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Robert Thomas (31), Nick Leddy (13)STL 3 – 3 CGY · STL 20% → 48% +28STL 20% → 48%+28 pts
- P319:12Brandon Saad Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Colton Parayko (9), Nick Leddy (14)STL 4 – 3 CGY · STL 49% → >99% +51STL 49% → >99%+51 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Flames 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CGY 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CGY 57%
- Fair odds
- CGY -124
- STL +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- STL 3.0 – 3.3 CGY
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | STL | CGY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1491 | 1492 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +4 | +13 | STL: Jordan Binnington: team allows 0.09 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈22 weighted starts) · CGY: Jacob Markstrom: team allows 0.33 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈20 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CGY +46 Elo | CGY 56.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CGY 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CGY 55.3% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| STL | Stat | CGY |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 312.9 | Goals scored | 3.018th of 31 |
| 16th of 313.1 | Goals allowed | 3.218th of 31 |
| 23rd of 31−0.3 | Margin | −0.220th of 31 |
| 23rd of 3147.8% | Shot share | 51.3%12th of 31 |
| 7th of 3191.1% | Save percentage | 90.1%19th of 31 |
| 21st of 314–6 | Last 10 | 5–516th of 31 |
| 26th of 317–12 | Road vs home | 10–1017th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
STL 1–0 CGY in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.