Edmonton Oilers at Calgary Flames, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CGY; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Oilers- Sam GagnerGoals1
- Warren FoegeleAssists1
- Sam GagnerPoints1
Flames- MacKenzie WeegarGoals1
- Blake ColemanAssists1
- MacKenzie WeegarPoints1
Scoring summary
- P319:25Zach Hyman Goal (28) Wrap-around, assists: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (29)3–1
- P31:39Sam Gagner Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Cody Ceci (12), Dylan Holloway (1)2–1
- P21:58MacKenzie Weegar Goal (10) Tip-In, assists: Blake Coleman (19)1–1
- P115:03Ryan McLeod Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: Warren Foegele (15), Vincent Desharnais (5)1–0
Turning points
The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P115:03Ryan McLeod Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: Warren Foegele (15), Vincent Desharnais (5)EDM 1 – 0 CGY · EDM 47% → 64% +17EDM 47% → 64%+17 pts
- P21:58MacKenzie Weegar Goal (10) Tip-In, assists: Blake Coleman (19)EDM 1 – 1 CGY · CGY 35% → 53% +18CGY 35% → 53%+18 pts
- P31:39Sam Gagner Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Cody Ceci (12), Dylan Holloway (1)EDM 2 – 1 CGY · EDM 48% → 73% +25EDM 48% → 73%+25 pts
- P319:25Zach Hyman Goal (28) Wrap-around, assists: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (29)EDM 3 – 1 CGY · EDM >99% → >99% +0EDM >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Flames 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CGY 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CGY 46%
- Fair odds
- CGY -114
- EDM +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- EDM 3.0 – 3.2 CGY
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | EDM | CGY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1536 | 1496 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +13 | −10 | EDM: Stuart Skinner: team allows 0.33 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈23 weighted starts) · CGY: Dan Vladar: team allows 0.24 more goals than with its usual starter (≈12 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | EDM +28 Elo | EDM 54.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CGY 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CGY 53.2% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| EDM | Stat | CGY |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 313.6 | Goals scored | 3.117th of 31 |
| 10th of 313.0 | Goals allowed | 3.219th of 31 |
| 6th of 31+0.6 | Margin | −0.119th of 31 |
| 3rd of 3155.1% | Shot share | 51.4%11th of 31 |
| 19th of 3190.0% | Save percentage | 90.0%18th of 31 |
| 1st of 3110–0 | Last 10 | 5–515th of 31 |
| 7th of 3112–9 | Road vs home | 10–915th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
EDM 1–0 CGY in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.