Seattle Kraken at Edmonton Oilers, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors EDM; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Kraken- Jared McCannGoals1
- Jordan EberleAssists1
- Jared McCannPoints1
Oilers- Warren FoegeleGoals2
- Leon DraisaitlAssists3
- Leon DraisaitlPoints4
Scoring summary
- P317:22Zach Hyman Goal (27) Snap Shot, assists: Connor McDavid (43), Leon Draisaitl (28)2–4
- P27:38Warren Foegele Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: Leon Draisaitl (27), Evander Kane (13)2–3
- P24:38Leon Draisaitl Goal (22) Wrist Shot, assists: Zach Hyman (17), Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (28)2–2
- P20:37Warren Foegele Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Leon Draisaitl (26), Evander Kane (12)2–1
- P113:32Jared McCann Goal (18) Wrist Shot, assists: Jordan Eberle (16), Yanni Gourde (12)2–0
- P19:49Eeli Tolvanen Goal (12) Snap Shot, assists: Oliver Bjorkstrand (24)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P19:49Eeli Tolvanen Goal (12) Snap Shot, assists: Oliver Bjorkstrand (24)SEA 1 – 0 EDM · SEA 44% → 60% +16SEA 44% → 60%+16 pts
- P113:32Jared McCann Goal (18) Wrist Shot, assists: Jordan Eberle (16), Yanni Gourde (12)SEA 2 – 0 EDM · SEA 61% → 75% +15SEA 61% → 75%+15 pts
- P20:37Warren Foegele Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Leon Draisaitl (26), Evander Kane (12)SEA 2 – 1 EDM · EDM 22% → 37% +15EDM 22% → 37%+15 pts
- P24:38Leon Draisaitl Goal (22) Wrist Shot, assists: Zach Hyman (17), Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (28)SEA 2 – 2 EDM · EDM 36% → 55% +19EDM 36% → 55%+19 pts
- P27:38Warren Foegele Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: Leon Draisaitl (27), Evander Kane (13)SEA 2 – 3 EDM · EDM 55% → 73% +18EDM 55% → 73%+18 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Oilers 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- EDM 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- EDM 61%
- Fair odds
- EDM -129
- SEA +129 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 2.9 – 3.3 EDM
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | EDM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1489 | 1533 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +12 | +14 | SEA: Joey Daccord: team allows 0.31 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈19 weighted starts) · EDM: Stuart Skinner: team allows 0.35 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈22 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | EDM +81 Elo | EDM 61.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | EDM 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | EDM 56.3% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| SEA | Stat | EDM |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 312.8 | Goals scored | 3.56th of 31 |
| 11th of 312.9 | Goals allowed | 3.012th of 31 |
| 19th of 31−0.1 | Margin | +0.66th of 31 |
| 20th of 3149.4% | Shot share | 55.1%4th of 31 |
| 7th of 3191.0% | Save percentage | 89.9%21st of 31 |
| 2nd of 318–2 | Last 10 | 10–01st of 31 |
| 21st of 3110–13 | Road vs home | 11–79th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
SEA 0–2 EDM in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.