Seattle Kraken at Pittsburgh Penguins, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PIT; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Kraken
Penguins- Sidney CrosbyGoals2
- Rickard RakellAssists2
- Sidney CrosbyPoints2
Scoring summary
- P317:39Sidney Crosby Goal (26) Wrist Shot, assists: Rickard Rakell (11), Erik Karlsson (24)0–3
- P23:32Sidney Crosby Goal (25) Snap Shot, assists: Kris Letang (26), Rickard Rakell (10)0–2
- P20:49Drew O'Connor Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Bryan Rust (14), Evgeni Malkin (21)0–1
Turning points
The 3 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P20:49Drew O'Connor Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Bryan Rust (14), Evgeni Malkin (21)SEA 0 – 1 PIT · PIT 54% → 71% +17PIT 54% → 71%+17 pts
- P23:32Sidney Crosby Goal (25) Snap Shot, assists: Kris Letang (26), Rickard Rakell (10)SEA 0 – 2 PIT · PIT 71% → 85% +14PIT 71% → 85%+14 pts
- P317:39Sidney Crosby Goal (26) Wrist Shot, assists: Rickard Rakell (11), Erik Karlsson (24)SEA 0 – 3 PIT · PIT >99% → >99% +0PIT >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Penguins 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- PIT 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PIT 54%
- Fair odds
- PIT -121
- SEA +121 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 3.0 – 3.2 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1497 | 1505 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +15 | −3 | SEA: Joey Daccord: team allows 0.37 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈19 weighted starts) · PIT: Tristan Jarry: team allows 0.08 more goals than with its usual starter (≈20 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PIT +25 Elo | PIT 53.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PIT 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PIT 54.7% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| SEA | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 312.9 | Goals scored | 3.019th of 31 |
| 9th of 312.9 | Goals allowed | 2.86th of 31 |
| 18th of 310.0 | Margin | +0.313th of 31 |
| 20th of 3149.4% | Shot share | 51.8%7th of 31 |
| 8th of 3191.1% | Save percentage | 91.5%4th of 31 |
| 2nd of 319–1 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 31 |
| 17th of 3110–11 | Road vs home | 9–1021st of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.