Seattle Kraken at New York Rangers, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NYR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Kraken- Jordan EberleGoals1
- Jordan EberleAssists1
- Jordan EberlePoints2
Rangers- Blake WheelerGoals2
- Mika ZibanejadAssists2
- Blake WheelerPoints2
Scoring summary
- P317:22Blake Wheeler Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Mika Zibanejad (27), Adam Fox (23)2–5
- P314:24Jared McCann Goal (17) Backhand, assists: Jordan Eberle (15), Justin Schultz (10)2–4
- P217:01Kaapo Kakko Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Mika Zibanejad (26), Chris Kreider (18)1–4
- P212:32Blake Wheeler Goal (6) Tip-In, assists: Jonny Brodzinski (8), Braden Schneider (9)1–3
- P111:09Erik Gustafsson Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: none1–2
- P110:41Jordan Eberle Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Jared McCann (11), Oliver Bjorkstrand (23)1–1
- P18:22Vincent Trocheck Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: Artemi Panarin (33), Adam Fox (22)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P18:22Vincent Trocheck Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: Artemi Panarin (33), Adam Fox (22)SEA 0 – 1 NYR · NYR 55% → 70% +15NYR 55% → 70%+15 pts
- P110:41Jordan Eberle Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Jared McCann (11), Oliver Bjorkstrand (23)SEA 1 – 1 NYR · SEA 30% → 45% +15SEA 30% → 45%+15 pts
- P111:09Erik Gustafsson Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: noneSEA 1 – 2 NYR · NYR 55% → 70% +15NYR 55% → 70%+15 pts
- P212:32Blake Wheeler Goal (6) Tip-In, assists: Jonny Brodzinski (8), Braden Schneider (9)SEA 1 – 3 NYR · NYR 74% → 88% +14NYR 74% → 88%+14 pts
- P217:01Kaapo Kakko Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Mika Zibanejad (26), Chris Kreider (18)SEA 1 – 4 NYR · NYR 90% → 97% +7NYR 90% → 97%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Rangers 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NYR 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYR 58%
- Fair odds
- NYR -126
- SEA +126 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 3.0 – 3.3 NYR
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | NYR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1493 | 1523 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +3 | −5 | SEA: Chris Driedger: team allows 0.07 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) · NYR: Igor Shesterkin: team allows 0.12 more goals than with its usual starter (≈20 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYR +58 Elo | NYR 58.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYR 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYR 55.7% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| SEA | Stat | NYR |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 312.8 | Goals scored | 3.311th of 31 |
| 9th of 312.9 | Goals allowed | 2.910th of 31 |
| 19th of 310.0 | Margin | +0.410th of 31 |
| 21st of 3149.2% | Shot share | 51.0%14th of 31 |
| 7th of 3191.2% | Save percentage | 90.6%13th of 31 |
| 2nd of 319–1 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 31 |
| 20th of 3110–12 | Road vs home | 13–64th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
SEA 0–1 NYR in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.