Washington Capitals at Boston Bruins, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BOS; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Capitals- Alex OvechkinGoals1
- Alex OvechkinAssists1
- Alex OvechkinPoints2
BruinsScoring summary
- P319:33Alex Ovechkin Goal (12) Backhand, assists: Beck Malenstyn (8)3–0
- P33:24Dylan Strome Goal (20) Snap Shot, assists: Alex Ovechkin (23), T.J. Oshie (5)2–0
- P21:05T.J. Oshie Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Max Pacioretty (7), Connor McMichael (10)1–0
Turning points
The 3 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P21:05T.J. Oshie Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Max Pacioretty (7), Connor McMichael (10)WSH 1 – 0 BOS · WSH 44% → 62% +18WSH 44% → 62%+18 pts
- P33:24Dylan Strome Goal (20) Snap Shot, assists: Alex Ovechkin (23), T.J. Oshie (5)WSH 2 – 0 BOS · WSH 72% → 90% +18WSH 72% → 90%+18 pts
- P319:33Alex Ovechkin Goal (12) Backhand, assists: Beck Malenstyn (8)WSH 3 – 0 BOS · WSH 100% → 100% +0WSH 100% → 100%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Bruins 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 67%
- Fair odds
- BOS -135
- WSH +135 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 2.8 – 3.3 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1470 | 1549 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −5 | +5 | WSH: Charlie Lindgren: team allows 0.12 more goals than with its usual starter (≈17 weighted starts) · BOS: Jeremy Swayman: team allows 0.13 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈21 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +124 Elo | BOS 67.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 57.5% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| WSH | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 312.5 | Goals scored | 3.57th of 31 |
| 16th of 313.1 | Goals allowed | 2.62nd of 31 |
| 26th of 31−0.6 | Margin | +0.92nd of 31 |
| 24th of 3147.2% | Shot share | 49.2%21st of 31 |
| 15th of 3190.4% | Save percentage | 92.0%2nd of 31 |
| 27th of 313–7 | Last 10 | 8–22nd of 31 |
| 25th of 319–14 | Road vs home | 16–86th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.