Vancouver Canucks at Boston Bruins, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BOS; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Canucks
Bruins- Pavel ZachaGoals1
- Charlie CoyleAssists2
- Pavel ZachaPoints2
Scoring summary
- P20:49Pavel Zacha Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: James van Riemsdyk (25), David Pastrnak (42)0–4
- P20:34Morgan Geekie Goal (9) Tip-In, assists: David Pastrnak (41), Pavel Zacha (21)0–3
- P115:37Danton Heinen Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Charlie Coyle (27)0–2
- P10:32Brad Marchand Goal (25) Wrist Shot, assists: Charlie Coyle (26)0–1
Turning points
The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P10:32Brad Marchand Goal (25) Wrist Shot, assists: Charlie Coyle (26)VAN 0 – 1 BOS · BOS 54% → 68% +14BOS 54% → 68%+14 pts
- P115:37Danton Heinen Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Charlie Coyle (27)VAN 0 – 2 BOS · BOS 70% → 83% +13BOS 70% → 83%+13 pts
- P20:34Morgan Geekie Goal (9) Tip-In, assists: David Pastrnak (41), Pavel Zacha (21)VAN 0 – 3 BOS · BOS 84% → 93% +9BOS 84% → 93%+9 pts
- P20:49Pavel Zacha Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: James van Riemsdyk (25), David Pastrnak (42)VAN 0 – 4 BOS · BOS 93% → 97% +5BOS 93% → 97%+5 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Bruins 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 52%
- Fair odds
- BOS -119
- VAN +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- VAN 2.9 – 3.2 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | VAN | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1557 | 1544 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +4 | −5 | VAN: Thatcher Demko: team allows 0.09 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈25 weighted starts) · BOS: Linus Ullmark: team allows 0.12 more goals than with its usual starter (≈17 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +13 Elo | BOS 51.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 54.4% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| VAN | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 313.8 | Goals scored | 3.58th of 31 |
| 3rd of 312.6 | Goals allowed | 2.62nd of 31 |
| 1st of 31+1.2 | Margin | +0.92nd of 31 |
| 22nd of 3148.3% | Shot share | 49.1%21st of 31 |
| 4th of 3191.6% | Save percentage | 91.9%2nd of 31 |
| 2nd of 318–2 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 31 |
| 2nd of 3116–10 | Road vs home | 15–87th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.