Columbus Blue Jackets at Vancouver Canucks, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors VAN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blue Jackets- Alexandre TexierGoals1
- Alexandre TexierAssists1
- Alexandre TexierPoints2
Canucks- Brock BoeserGoals3
- J.T. MillerAssists3
- Brock BoeserPoints4
Scoring summary
- OT4:01Elias Pettersson Goal (27) Deflected, assists: Brock Boeser (22), Quinn Hughes (50)4–5
- P36:28Brock Boeser Goal (30) Wrist Shot, assists: Elias Pettersson (37), J.T. Miller (46)4–4
- P33:24Brock Boeser Goal (29) Tip-In, assists: Pius Suter (6), Quinn Hughes (49)4–3
- P31:11Elias Pettersson Goal (26) Wrist Shot, assists: J.T. Miller (45), Quinn Hughes (48)4–2
- P218:24Kirill Marchenko Goal (15) Tip-In, assists: Johnny Gaudreau (23), Zach Werenski (26)4–1
- P217:27Jake Bean Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Yegor Chinakhov (10)3–1
- P215:20Brock Boeser Goal (28) Tip-In, assists: J.T. Miller (44), Pius Suter (5)2–1
- P26:14Sean Kuraly Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Alexandre Texier (8), Justin Danforth (10)2–0
- P24:30Alexandre Texier Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Damon Severson (9)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P24:30Alexandre Texier Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Damon Severson (9)CBJ 1 – 0 VAN · CBJ 44% → 63% +19CBJ 44% → 63%+19 pts
- P217:27Jake Bean Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Yegor Chinakhov (10)CBJ 3 – 1 VAN · CBJ 68% → 86% +18CBJ 68% → 86%+18 pts
- P33:24Brock Boeser Goal (29) Tip-In, assists: Pius Suter (6), Quinn Hughes (49)CBJ 4 – 3 VAN · VAN 10% → 28% +18VAN 10% → 28%+18 pts
- P36:28Brock Boeser Goal (30) Wrist Shot, assists: Elias Pettersson (37), J.T. Miller (46)CBJ 4 – 4 VAN · VAN 25% → 54% +29VAN 25% → 54%+29 pts
- OT4:01Elias Pettersson Goal (27) Deflected, assists: Brock Boeser (22), Quinn Hughes (50)CBJ 4 – 5 VAN · VAN 51% → >99% +49VAN 51% → >99%+49 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Canucks 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- VAN 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- VAN 69%
- Fair odds
- VAN -138
- CBJ +138 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CBJ 2.9 – 3.3 VAN
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CBJ | VAN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1458 | 1553 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −1 | +6 | CBJ: Elvis Merzlikins: team allows 0.03 more goals than with its usual starter (≈20 weighted starts) · VAN: Thatcher Demko: team allows 0.15 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈24 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | VAN +138 Elo | VAN 68.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | VAN 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | VAN 57.9% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CBJ | Stat | VAN |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 313.0 | Goals scored | 3.82nd of 31 |
| 30th of 313.7 | Goals allowed | 2.63rd of 31 |
| 27th of 31−0.7 | Margin | +1.21st of 31 |
| 26th of 3146.6% | Shot share | 48.2%22nd of 31 |
| 25th of 3189.6% | Save percentage | 91.7%3rd of 31 |
| 26th of 313–7 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 31 |
| 29th of 316–15 | Road vs home | 16–63rd of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CBJ 1–0 VAN in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.