Columbus Blue Jackets at Calgary Flames, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CGY; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blue Jackets- Damon SeversonGoals1
- Damon SeversonAssists1
- Damon SeversonPoints2
Flames- MacKenzie WeegarGoals1
- Matt CoronatoAssists1
- MacKenzie WeegarPoints1
Scoring summary
- P318:18Adam Fantilli Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Yegor Chinakhov (9)5–2
- P313:43Dmitri Voronkov Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Adam Fantilli (15), Damon Severson (8)4–2
- P26:33Alexandre Texier Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Sean Kuraly (6), Erik Gudbranson (11)3–2
- P114:42Connor Zary Goal (10) Backhand, assists: Matt Coronato (2), Rasmus Andersson (21)2–2
- P111:48Damon Severson Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: none2–1
- P17:26MacKenzie Weegar Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Andrew Mangiapane (18), Blake Coleman (20)1–1
- P12:50Yegor Chinakhov Goal (12) Backhand, assists: Zach Werenski (25), Cole Sillinger (11)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P12:50Yegor Chinakhov Goal (12) Backhand, assists: Zach Werenski (25), Cole Sillinger (11)CBJ 1 – 0 CGY · CBJ 43% → 58% +15CBJ 43% → 58%+15 pts
- P17:26MacKenzie Weegar Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Andrew Mangiapane (18), Blake Coleman (20)CBJ 1 – 1 CGY · CGY 41% → 56% +15CGY 41% → 56%+15 pts
- P111:48Damon Severson Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: noneCBJ 2 – 1 CGY · CBJ 44% → 60% +16CBJ 44% → 60%+16 pts
- P114:42Connor Zary Goal (10) Backhand, assists: Matt Coronato (2), Rasmus Andersson (21)CBJ 2 – 2 CGY · CGY 39% → 56% +17CGY 39% → 56%+17 pts
- P26:33Alexandre Texier Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Sean Kuraly (6), Erik Gudbranson (11)CBJ 3 – 2 CGY · CBJ 45% → 64% +19CBJ 45% → 64%+19 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Flames 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CGY 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CGY 64%
- Fair odds
- CGY -132
- CBJ +132 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CBJ 2.9 – 3.3 CGY
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CBJ | CGY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1451 | 1490 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −15 | +10 | CBJ: Daniil Tarasov: team allows 0.37 more goals than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · CGY: Jacob Markstrom: team allows 0.26 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈20 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CGY +98 Elo | CGY 63.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CGY 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CGY 56.8% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CBJ | Stat | CGY |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 313.0 | Goals scored | 3.017th of 31 |
| 30th of 313.8 | Goals allowed | 3.220th of 31 |
| 28th of 31−0.8 | Margin | −0.222nd of 31 |
| 27th of 3146.5% | Shot share | 51.4%10th of 31 |
| 26th of 3189.6% | Save percentage | 90.0%20th of 31 |
| 26th of 313–7 | Last 10 | 5–516th of 31 |
| 29th of 315–15 | Road vs home | 10–1120th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CBJ 1–0 CGY in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.