New Jersey Devils at Columbus Blue Jackets, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CBJ; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Devils- Nico HischierGoals1
- Cal FooteAssists1
- John MarinoPoints1
Blue Jackets- Cole SillingerGoals1
- Johnny GaudreauAssists1
- Cole SillingerPoints1
Scoring summary
- P214:43Nathan Bastian Goal (3) Tip-In, assists: Kevin Bahl (6)4–1
- P213:31Nico Hischier Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: none3–1
- P28:40Alexander Holtz Goal (12) Tip-In, assists: Cal Foote (1), Max Willman (1)2–1
- P20:28John Marino Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Simon Nemec (8)1–1
- P14:21Cole Sillinger Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Yegor Chinakhov (8), Johnny Gaudreau (22)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P14:21Cole Sillinger Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Yegor Chinakhov (8), Johnny Gaudreau (22)NJ 0 – 1 CBJ · CBJ 54% → 68% +14CBJ 54% → 68%+14 pts
- P20:28John Marino Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Simon Nemec (8)NJ 1 – 1 CBJ · NJ 30% → 47% +17NJ 30% → 47%+17 pts
- P28:40Alexander Holtz Goal (12) Tip-In, assists: Cal Foote (1), Max Willman (1)NJ 2 – 1 CBJ · NJ 47% → 67% +20NJ 47% → 67%+20 pts
- P213:31Nico Hischier Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: noneNJ 3 – 1 CBJ · NJ 69% → 85% +16NJ 69% → 85%+16 pts
- P214:43Nathan Bastian Goal (3) Tip-In, assists: Kevin Bahl (6)NJ 4 – 1 CBJ · NJ 86% → 95% +9NJ 86% → 95%+9 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Blue Jackets 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CBJ 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CBJ 49%
- Fair odds
- CBJ -116
- NJ +116 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NJ 3.0 – 3.2 CBJ
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NJ | CBJ | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1501 | 1459 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | 0 | −2 | NJ: Vitek Vanecek: team allows 0.01 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈19 weighted starts) · CBJ: Elvis Merzlikins: team allows 0.04 more goals than with its usual starter (≈19 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NJ +9 Elo | NJ 51.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CBJ 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CBJ 53.8% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NJ | Stat | CBJ |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 313.4 | Goals scored | 3.119th of 31 |
| 25th of 313.5 | Goals allowed | 3.830th of 31 |
| 18th of 310.0 | Margin | −0.728th of 31 |
| 11th of 3151.5% | Shot share | 46.3%27th of 31 |
| 29th of 3189.0% | Save percentage | 89.7%23rd of 31 |
| 15th of 315–5 | Last 10 | 3–724th of 31 |
| 2nd of 3113–8 | Road vs home | 9–1528th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
NJ 2–1 CBJ in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 3.