Montreal Canadiens at New Jersey Devils, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NJ; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Canadiens- Cole CaufieldGoals1
- Cole CaufieldAssists1
- Cole CaufieldPoints2
Devils- Alexander HoltzGoals1
- Nico HischierAssists1
- Alexander HoltzPoints1
Scoring summary
- P315:29Cole Caufield Goal (14) Snap Shot, assists: Sean Monahan (16), Jordan Harris (5)3–2
- P31:38Alexander Holtz Goal (11) Slap Shot, assists: Simon Nemec (7), Dawson Mercer (9)2–2
- P30:47Luke Hughes Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Nico Hischier (12), Timo Meier (7)2–1
- P214:45Joshua Roy Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Sean Monahan (15), Joel Armia (1)2–0
- P112:48Juraj Slafkovsky Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Cole Caufield (19)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P112:48Juraj Slafkovsky Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Cole Caufield (19)MTL 1 – 0 NJ · MTL 45% → 61% +16MTL 45% → 61%+16 pts
- P214:45Joshua Roy Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Sean Monahan (15), Joel Armia (1)MTL 2 – 0 NJ · MTL 68% → 85% +17MTL 68% → 85%+17 pts
- P30:47Luke Hughes Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Nico Hischier (12), Timo Meier (7)MTL 2 – 1 NJ · NJ 11% → 29% +17NJ 11% → 29%+17 pts
- P31:38Alexander Holtz Goal (11) Slap Shot, assists: Simon Nemec (7), Dawson Mercer (9)MTL 2 – 2 NJ · NJ 28% → 53% +25NJ 28% → 53%+25 pts
- P315:29Cole Caufield Goal (14) Snap Shot, assists: Sean Monahan (16), Jordan Harris (5)MTL 3 – 2 NJ · MTL 48% → 90% +42MTL 48% → 90%+42 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Devils 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NJ 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NJ 60%
- Fair odds
- NJ -127
- MTL +127 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MTL 3.0 – 3.3 NJ
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MTL | NJ | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1472 | 1504 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +7 | +8 | MTL: Sam Montembeault: team allows 0.19 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈16 weighted starts) · NJ: Nico Daws: team allows 0.20 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NJ +67 Elo | NJ 59.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NJ 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NJ 55.9% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| MTL | Stat | NJ |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 312.8 | Goals scored | 3.57th of 31 |
| 24th of 313.5 | Goals allowed | 3.526th of 31 |
| 27th of 31−0.6 | Margin | 0.018th of 31 |
| 28th of 3145.8% | Shot share | 51.4%12th of 31 |
| 14th of 3190.5% | Save percentage | 89.0%29th of 31 |
| 23rd of 313–7 | Last 10 | 6–49th of 31 |
| 17th of 319–10 | Road vs home | 9–1022nd of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
MTL 0–1 NJ in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.