Boston Bruins at Philadelphia Flyers, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bruins- David PastrnakGoals2
- James van RiemsdykAssists2
- David PastrnakPoints3
Flyers- Tyson FoersterGoals2
- Olle LycksellAssists1
- Tyson FoersterPoints2
Scoring summary
- P314:45Charlie Coyle Goal (18) Backhand, assists: Trent Frederic (15), James van Riemsdyk (24)6–2
- P311:24Tyson Foerster Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: Sean Couturier (21), Olle Lycksell (1)5–2
- P215:23Tyson Foerster Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Travis Sanheim (23)5–1
- P21:15James van Riemsdyk Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: David Pastrnak (39), Hampus Lindholm (18)5–0
- P118:23David Pastrnak Goal (33) Wrist Shot, assists: none4–0
- P116:47Danton Heinen Goal (9) Tip-In, assists: Brandon Carlo (10)3–0
- P115:46Charlie McAvoy Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: James van Riemsdyk (23), Pavel Zacha (20)2–0
- P114:09David Pastrnak Goal (32) Snap Shot, assists: Pavel Zacha (19), Charlie McAvoy (26)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P114:09David Pastrnak Goal (32) Snap Shot, assists: Pavel Zacha (19), Charlie McAvoy (26)BOS 1 – 0 PHI · BOS 47% → 63% +16BOS 47% → 63%+16 pts
- P115:46Charlie McAvoy Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: James van Riemsdyk (23), Pavel Zacha (20)BOS 2 – 0 PHI · BOS 63% → 78% +14BOS 63% → 78%+14 pts
- P116:47Danton Heinen Goal (9) Tip-In, assists: Brandon Carlo (10)BOS 3 – 0 PHI · BOS 78% → 89% +10BOS 78% → 89%+10 pts
- P118:23David Pastrnak Goal (33) Wrist Shot, assists: noneBOS 4 – 0 PHI · BOS 89% → 95% +6BOS 89% → 95%+6 pts
- P21:15James van Riemsdyk Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: David Pastrnak (39), Hampus Lindholm (18)BOS 5 – 0 PHI · BOS 96% → 99% +3BOS 96% → 99%+3 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Flyers 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 50%
- Fair odds
- PHI -117
- BOS +117 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 3.0 – 3.2 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1545 | 1500 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −6 | +1 | BOS: Linus Ullmark: team allows 0.15 more goals than with its usual starter (≈17 weighted starts) · PHI: Samuel Ersson: team allows 0.02 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈18 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +3 Elo | BOS 50.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 53.9% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| BOS | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 313.5 | Goals scored | 2.923rd of 31 |
| 2nd of 312.6 | Goals allowed | 2.99th of 31 |
| 2nd of 31+0.9 | Margin | 0.017th of 31 |
| 20th of 3149.3% | Shot share | 54.5%5th of 31 |
| 2nd of 3191.9% | Save percentage | 90.3%16th of 31 |
| 2nd of 317–3 | Last 10 | 5–515th of 31 |
| 8th of 3114–10 | Road vs home | 11–1320th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.