Philadelphia Flyers at Detroit Red Wings, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DET; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Flyers
Red Wings- Dylan LarkinGoals1
- Lucas RaymondAssists2
- Lucas RaymondPoints2
Scoring summary
- P210:08Andrew Copp Goal (9) Slap Shot, assists: Michael Rasmussen (11), Jeff Petry (12)0–3
- P27:15Moritz Seider Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Lucas Raymond (26)0–2
- P21:37Dylan Larkin Goal (20) Snap Shot, assists: Lucas Raymond (25)0–1
Turning points
The 3 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P21:37Dylan Larkin Goal (20) Snap Shot, assists: Lucas Raymond (25)PHI 0 – 1 DET · DET 54% → 71% +17DET 54% → 71%+17 pts
- P27:15Moritz Seider Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Lucas Raymond (26)PHI 0 – 2 DET · DET 72% → 86% +14DET 72% → 86%+14 pts
- P210:08Andrew Copp Goal (9) Slap Shot, assists: Michael Rasmussen (11), Jeff Petry (12)PHI 0 – 3 DET · DET 87% → 95% +8DET 87% → 95%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Red Wings 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET 56%
- Fair odds
- DET -123
- PHI +123 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 3.0 – 3.3 DET
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1504 | 1507 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +1 | +4 | PHI: Samuel Ersson: team allows 0.04 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈17 weighted starts) · DET: Alex Lyon: team allows 0.09 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈15 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DET +40 Elo | DET 55.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 55.1% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| PHI | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 313.0 | Goals scored | 3.55th of 31 |
| 11th of 312.9 | Goals allowed | 3.322nd of 31 |
| 16th of 31+0.1 | Margin | +0.214th of 31 |
| 5th of 3154.3% | Shot share | 47.4%24th of 31 |
| 14th of 3190.4% | Save percentage | 90.3%15th of 31 |
| 8th of 316–4 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 31 |
| 9th of 3113–10 | Road vs home | 12–1116th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
PHI 1–1 DET in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.