Dallas Stars at Detroit Red Wings, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DET; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Stars- Roope HintzGoals2
- Wyatt JohnstonAssists3
- Roope HintzPoints4
Red Wings- Dylan LarkinGoals1
- Lucas RaymondAssists2
- Dylan LarkinPoints2
Scoring summary
- P316:46J.T. Compher Goal (11) Snap Shot, assists: Alex DeBrincat (24), Dylan Larkin (24)5–4
- P311:28Dylan Larkin Goal (19) Wrist Shot, assists: Lucas Raymond (24)5–3
- P215:12Roope Hintz Goal (22) Wrist Shot, assists: Wyatt Johnston (18)5–2
- P211:40Esa Lindell Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Wyatt Johnston (17), Roope Hintz (24)4–2
- P24:35Roope Hintz Goal (21) Wrist Shot, assists: Wyatt Johnston (16), Thomas Harley (16)3–2
- P20:22Mason Marchment Goal (15) Snap Shot, assists: Matt Duchene (27), Tyler Seguin (19)2–2
- P116:53Alex DeBrincat Goal (18) Snap Shot, assists: Daniel Sprong (19)1–2
- P114:33David Perron Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Shayne Gostisbehere (25), Lucas Raymond (23)1–1
- P13:24Jason Robertson Goal (17) Snap Shot, assists: Thomas Harley (15), Roope Hintz (23)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P114:33David Perron Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Shayne Gostisbehere (25), Lucas Raymond (23)DAL 1 – 1 DET · DET 38% → 54% +17DET 38% → 54%+17 pts
- P116:53Alex DeBrincat Goal (18) Snap Shot, assists: Daniel Sprong (19)DAL 1 – 2 DET · DET 54% → 70% +16DET 54% → 70%+16 pts
- P20:22Mason Marchment Goal (15) Snap Shot, assists: Matt Duchene (27), Tyler Seguin (19)DAL 2 – 2 DET · DAL 29% → 46% +17DAL 29% → 46%+17 pts
- P24:35Roope Hintz Goal (21) Wrist Shot, assists: Wyatt Johnston (16), Thomas Harley (16)DAL 3 – 2 DET · DAL 46% → 65% +19DAL 46% → 65%+19 pts
- P211:40Esa Lindell Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Wyatt Johnston (17), Roope Hintz (24)DAL 4 – 2 DET · DAL 67% → 84% +16DAL 67% → 84%+16 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Red Wings 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET 55%
- Fair odds
- DET -122
- DAL +122 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DAL 3.0 – 3.3 DET
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DAL | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1525 | 1509 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −5 | +9 | DAL: Jake Oettinger: team allows 0.12 more goals than with its usual starter (≈19 weighted starts) · DET: Alex Lyon: team allows 0.22 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈15 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DET +33 Elo | DET 54.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 55.0% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| DAL | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 313.7 | Goals scored | 3.56th of 31 |
| 14th of 313.0 | Goals allowed | 3.320th of 31 |
| 6th of 31+0.6 | Margin | +0.214th of 31 |
| 17th of 3149.8% | Shot share | 47.4%24th of 31 |
| 16th of 3190.4% | Save percentage | 90.4%15th of 31 |
| 14th of 315–5 | Last 10 | 7–34th of 31 |
| 6th of 3113–9 | Road vs home | 12–1013th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
DAL 1–0 DET in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.