Dallas Stars at New York Islanders, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NYI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Stars- Jason RobertsonGoals1
- Joe PavelskiAssists2
- Joe PavelskiPoints2
Islanders- Bo HorvatGoals1
- Noah DobsonAssists2
- Mathew BarzalPoints2
Scoring summary
- OT0:41Bo Horvat Goal (19) Backhand, assists: Mathew Barzal (36)2–3
- P35:23Hudson Fasching Goal (3) Deflected, assists: Noah Dobson (41), Brock Nelson (17)2–2
- P215:08Nils Lundkvist Goal (2) Slap Shot, assists: Sam Steel (9), Joe Pavelski (23)2–1
- P211:35Jason Robertson Goal (16) Snap Shot, assists: Joe Pavelski (22), Radek Faksa (7)1–1
- P12:52Alexander Romanov Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Mathew Barzal (35), Noah Dobson (40)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P12:52Alexander Romanov Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Mathew Barzal (35), Noah Dobson (40)DAL 0 – 1 NYI · NYI 57% → 71% +14NYI 57% → 71%+14 pts
- P211:35Jason Robertson Goal (16) Snap Shot, assists: Joe Pavelski (22), Radek Faksa (7)DAL 1 – 1 NYI · DAL 26% → 45% +19DAL 26% → 45%+19 pts
- P215:08Nils Lundkvist Goal (2) Slap Shot, assists: Sam Steel (9), Joe Pavelski (23)DAL 2 – 1 NYI · DAL 45% → 67% +22DAL 45% → 67%+22 pts
- P35:23Hudson Fasching Goal (3) Deflected, assists: Noah Dobson (41), Brock Nelson (17)DAL 2 – 2 NYI · NYI 26% → 54% +28NYI 26% → 54%+28 pts
- OT0:41Bo Horvat Goal (19) Backhand, assists: Mathew Barzal (36)DAL 2 – 3 NYI · NYI 52% → 92% +40NYI 52% → 92%+40 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Islanders 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NYI 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYI 49%
- Fair odds
- NYI -134
- DAL +134 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DAL 2.9 – 3.3 NYI
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DAL | NYI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1527 | 1469 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | DAL on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | +5 | −7 | DAL: Scott Wedgewood: team allows 0.12 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈17 weighted starts) · NYI: Ilya Sorokin: team allows 0.16 more goals than with its usual starter (≈23 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DAL +4 Elo | DAL 50.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYI 59.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYI 57.3% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| DAL | Stat | NYI |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 313.7 | Goals scored | 3.023rd of 31 |
| 14th of 313.0 | Goals allowed | 3.627th of 31 |
| 4th of 31+0.7 | Margin | −0.626th of 31 |
| 19th of 3149.5% | Shot share | 45.2%29th of 31 |
| 16th of 3190.4% | Save percentage | 90.8%10th of 31 |
| 15th of 315–5 | Last 10 | 2–828th of 31 |
| 3rd of 3113–8 | Road vs home | 10–1120th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.