Dallas Stars at New Jersey Devils, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NJ; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Stars- Roope HintzGoals2
- Jason RobertsonAssists2
- Roope HintzPoints2
Devils- Jesper BrattGoals1
- Nico HischierAssists1
- Jesper BrattPoints1
Scoring summary
- P319:00Tyler Toffoli Goal (17) Snap Shot, assists: none6–2
- P313:15Jesper Bratt Goal (17) Wrist Shot, assists: Timo Meier (8), Nico Hischier (13)6–1
- P37:18Wyatt Johnston Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Jason Robertson (32), Esa Lindell (16)6–0
- P32:10Craig Smith Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Ty Dellandrea (2), Thomas Harley (14)5–0
- P219:42Roope Hintz Goal (20) Wrist Shot, assists: Wyatt Johnston (15), Ryan Suter (9)4–0
- P216:31Matt Duchene Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Tyler Seguin (18), Thomas Harley (13)3–0
- P27:58Roope Hintz Goal (19) Backhand, assists: Ryan Suter (8)2–0
- P15:42Joe Pavelski Goal (19) Snap Shot, assists: Jamie Benn (20), Jason Robertson (31)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P15:42Joe Pavelski Goal (19) Snap Shot, assists: Jamie Benn (20), Jason Robertson (31)DAL 1 – 0 NJ · DAL 50% → 65% +15DAL 50% → 65%+15 pts
- P27:58Roope Hintz Goal (19) Backhand, assists: Ryan Suter (8)DAL 2 – 0 NJ · DAL 69% → 84% +15DAL 69% → 84%+15 pts
- P216:31Matt Duchene Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Tyler Seguin (18), Thomas Harley (13)DAL 3 – 0 NJ · DAL 88% → 96% +8DAL 88% → 96%+8 pts
- P219:42Roope Hintz Goal (20) Wrist Shot, assists: Wyatt Johnston (15), Ryan Suter (9)DAL 4 – 0 NJ · DAL 97% → >99% +2DAL 97% → >99%+2 pts
- P32:10Craig Smith Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Ty Dellandrea (2), Thomas Harley (14)DAL 5 – 0 NJ · DAL >99% → >99% +0DAL >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Devils 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NJ 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NJ 49%
- Fair odds
- NJ -101
- DAL +101 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DAL 3.1 – 3.1 NJ
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DAL | NJ | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1522 | 1505 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | — | −30 | NJ on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | +3 | +7 | DAL: Scott Wedgewood: team allows 0.08 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈16 weighted starts) · NJ: Nico Daws: team allows 0.18 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DAL +8 Elo | DAL 51.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NJ 50.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NJ 50.3% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| DAL | Stat | NJ |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 313.7 | Goals scored | 3.58th of 31 |
| 15th of 313.1 | Goals allowed | 3.424th of 31 |
| 7th of 31+0.6 | Margin | 0.018th of 31 |
| 19th of 3149.4% | Shot share | 51.5%11th of 31 |
| 16th of 3190.3% | Save percentage | 89.2%29th of 31 |
| 15th of 315–5 | Last 10 | 5–515th of 31 |
| 3rd of 3112–8 | Road vs home | 9–1124th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.