Tampa Bay Lightning at Detroit Red Wings, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DET; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Lightning- Victor HedmanGoals1
- Nikita KucherovAssists1
- Victor HedmanPoints1
Red Wings- Daniel SprongGoals1
- J.T. CompherAssists1
- Daniel SprongPoints1
Scoring summary
- P28:58Daniel Sprong Goal (12) Snap Shot, assists: J.T. Compher (16)1–2
- P118:29Lucas Raymond Goal (13) Snap Shot, assists: Dylan Larkin (23), David Perron (12)1–1
- P18:45Victor Hedman Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: Nikita Kucherov (48), Brayden Point (27)1–0
Turning points
The 3 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P18:45Victor Hedman Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: Nikita Kucherov (48), Brayden Point (27)TB 1 – 0 DET · TB 46% → 61% +16TB 46% → 61%+16 pts
- P118:29Lucas Raymond Goal (13) Snap Shot, assists: Dylan Larkin (23), David Perron (12)TB 1 – 1 DET · DET 37% → 54% +17DET 37% → 54%+17 pts
- P28:58Daniel Sprong Goal (12) Snap Shot, assists: J.T. Compher (16)TB 1 – 2 DET · DET 54% → 72% +19DET 54% → 72%+19 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Red Wings 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET 54%
- Fair odds
- DET -122
- TB +122 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TB 3.0 – 3.3 DET
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TB | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1513 | 1507 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +5 | +6 | TB: Andrei Vasilevskiy: team allows 0.13 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈18 weighted starts) · DET: Alex Lyon: team allows 0.15 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈14 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DET +30 Elo | DET 54.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 54.9% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| TB | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 313.4 | Goals scored | 3.65th of 31 |
| 20th of 313.3 | Goals allowed | 3.320th of 31 |
| 16th of 31+0.1 | Margin | +0.214th of 31 |
| 17th of 3149.7% | Shot share | 47.2%25th of 31 |
| 25th of 3189.6% | Save percentage | 90.3%16th of 31 |
| 3rd of 317–3 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 31 |
| 23rd of 319–13 | Road vs home | 11–1015th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
TB 0–1 DET in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.