Tampa Bay Lightning at Buffalo Sabres, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BUF; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Lightning- Nick PaulGoals1
- Brandon HagelAssists2
- Nick PaulPoints2
Sabres- Dylan CozensGoals1
- Rasmus DahlinAssists1
- Dylan CozensPoints1
Scoring summary
- P318:44Calvin de Haan Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Brandon Hagel (25), Nicholas Paul (13)3–1
- P213:52Dylan Cozens Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: JJ Peterka (15), Rasmus Dahlin (24)2–1
- P17:06Tyler Motte Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: none2–0
- P16:14Nicholas Paul Goal (12) Snap Shot, assists: Brandon Hagel (24), Anthony Cirelli (11)1–0
Turning points
The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P16:14Nicholas Paul Goal (12) Snap Shot, assists: Brandon Hagel (24), Anthony Cirelli (11)TB 1 – 0 BUF · TB 45% → 60% +15TB 45% → 60%+15 pts
- P17:06Tyler Motte Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: noneTB 2 – 0 BUF · TB 60% → 74% +14TB 60% → 74%+14 pts
- P213:52Dylan Cozens Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: JJ Peterka (15), Rasmus Dahlin (24)TB 2 – 1 BUF · BUF 15% → 32% +17BUF 15% → 32%+17 pts
- P318:44Calvin de Haan Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Brandon Hagel (25), Nicholas Paul (13)TB 3 – 1 BUF · TB >99% → >99% +1TB >99% → >99%+1 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Sabres 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- BUF 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BUF 57%
- Fair odds
- BUF -124
- TB +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TB 2.9 – 3.2 BUF
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TB | BUF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1509 | 1489 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −11 | +21 | TB: Jonas Johansson: team allows 0.28 more goals than with its usual starter (≈16 weighted starts) · BUF: Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen: team allows 0.53 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈16 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BUF +48 Elo | BUF 56.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BUF 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BUF 55.4% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| TB | Stat | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 313.5 | Goals scored | 3.023rd of 31 |
| 22nd of 313.4 | Goals allowed | 3.218th of 31 |
| 17th of 31+0.1 | Margin | −0.321st of 31 |
| 17th of 3149.9% | Shot share | 51.3%13th of 31 |
| 25th of 3189.4% | Save percentage | 89.4%26th of 31 |
| 9th of 316–4 | Last 10 | 6–49th of 31 |
| 24th of 318–13 | Road vs home | 10–1223rd of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
TB 0–1 BUF in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.