Ottawa Senators at Philadelphia Flyers, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Senators- Tim StutzleGoals2
- Thomas ChabotAssists1
- Tim StutzlePoints2
Flyers- Egor ZamulaGoals2
- Joel FarabeeAssists2
- Egor ZamulaPoints3
Scoring summary
- P318:37Tim Stützle Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Jakob Chychrun (20)5–3
- P315:07Vladimir Tarasenko Goal (12) Snap Shot, assists: Mathieu Joseph (14)4–3
- P33:19Claude Giroux Goal (14) Backhand, assists: Brady Tkachuk (18), Jacob Bernard-Docker (6)3–3
- P211:45Tim Stützle Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Shane Pinto (1), Thomas Chabot (10)2–3
- P210:50Joel Farabee Goal (17) Wrist Shot, assists: Egor Zamula (10), Travis Konecny (20)1–3
- P24:04Zack MacEwen Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: none1–2
- P116:40Egor Zamula Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Joel Farabee (22), Cam Atkinson (14)0–2
- P111:57Egor Zamula Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Joel Farabee (21), Cam York (11)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P111:57Egor Zamula Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Joel Farabee (21), Cam York (11)OTT 0 – 1 PHI · PHI 56% → 71% +15PHI 56% → 71%+15 pts
- P210:50Joel Farabee Goal (17) Wrist Shot, assists: Egor Zamula (10), Travis Konecny (20)OTT 1 – 3 PHI · PHI 74% → 88% +14PHI 74% → 88%+14 pts
- P211:45Tim Stützle Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Shane Pinto (1), Thomas Chabot (10)OTT 2 – 3 PHI · OTT 12% → 26% +14OTT 12% → 26%+14 pts
- P33:19Claude Giroux Goal (14) Backhand, assists: Brady Tkachuk (18), Jacob Bernard-Docker (6)OTT 3 – 3 PHI · OTT 22% → 46% +25OTT 22% → 46%+25 pts
- P315:07Vladimir Tarasenko Goal (12) Snap Shot, assists: Mathieu Joseph (14)OTT 4 – 3 PHI · OTT 48% → 89% +41OTT 48% → 89%+41 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Flyers 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 64%
- Fair odds
- PHI -132
- OTT +132 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- OTT 2.9 – 3.3 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | OTT | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1475 | 1514 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | −30 | PHI and OTT on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −10 | +14 | OTT: Mads Sogaard: team allows 0.25 more goals than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) · PHI: Samuel Ersson: team allows 0.35 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈16 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +99 Elo | PHI 63.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 56.8% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| OTT | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 313.4 | Goals scored | 3.022nd of 31 |
| 29th of 313.7 | Goals allowed | 2.88th of 31 |
| 23rd of 31−0.3 | Margin | +0.215th of 31 |
| 9th of 3151.8% | Shot share | 54.5%5th of 31 |
| 31st of 3188.5% | Save percentage | 90.6%12th of 31 |
| 23rd of 313–7 | Last 10 | 6–410th of 31 |
| 29th of 314–12 | Road vs home | 11–1117th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
OTT 1–0 PHI in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.