Montreal Canadiens at Ottawa Senators, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors OTT; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Canadiens- Michael PezzettaGoals1
- Michael PezzettaPoints1
Senators- Tim StutzleGoals1
- Tim StutzleAssists2
- Tim StutzlePoints3
Scoring summary
- P315:16Michael Pezzetta Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: none2–6
- P312:26Parker Kelly Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Jake Sanderson (17)1–6
- P31:41Mathieu Joseph Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Tim Stützle (33)1–5
- P218:54Vladimir Tarasenko Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Brady Tkachuk (17), Tim Stützle (32)1–4
- P29:51Rourke Chartier Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Parker Kelly (4), Jacob Bernard-Docker (5)1–3
- P113:25Cole Caufield Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Sean Monahan (17)1–2
- P111:07Tim Stützle Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Artem Zub (13), Drake Batherson (19)0–2
- P18:40Brady Tkachuk Goal (19) Wrist Shot, assists: Ridly Greig (11), Artem Zub (12)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P18:40Brady Tkachuk Goal (19) Wrist Shot, assists: Ridly Greig (11), Artem Zub (12)MTL 0 – 1 OTT · OTT 58% → 73% +14OTT 58% → 73%+14 pts
- P111:07Tim Stützle Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Artem Zub (13), Drake Batherson (19)MTL 0 – 2 OTT · OTT 73% → 84% +12OTT 73% → 84%+12 pts
- P113:25Cole Caufield Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Sean Monahan (17)MTL 1 – 2 OTT · MTL 15% → 27% +12MTL 15% → 27%+12 pts
- P29:51Rourke Chartier Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Parker Kelly (4), Jacob Bernard-Docker (5)MTL 1 – 3 OTT · OTT 75% → 88% +13OTT 75% → 88%+13 pts
- P218:54Vladimir Tarasenko Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Brady Tkachuk (17), Tim Stützle (32)MTL 1 – 4 OTT · OTT 91% → 98% +6OTT 91% → 98%+6 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Senators 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- OTT 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OTT 57%
- Fair odds
- OTT -143
- MTL +143 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MTL 2.9 – 3.4 OTT
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MTL | OTT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1475 | 1473 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | MTL on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −2 | −17 | MTL: Cayden Primeau: team allows 0.05 more goals than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · OTT: Joonas Korpisalo: team allows 0.42 more goals than with its usual starter (≈18 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | OTT +48 Elo | OTT 56.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OTT 59.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | OTT 58.8% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| MTL | Stat | OTT |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 312.8 | Goals scored | 3.410th of 31 |
| 24th of 313.4 | Goals allowed | 3.829th of 31 |
| 27th of 31−0.6 | Margin | −0.424th of 31 |
| 28th of 3145.8% | Shot share | 51.5%10th of 31 |
| 14th of 3190.6% | Save percentage | 88.4%31st of 31 |
| 19th of 314–6 | Last 10 | 3–724th of 31 |
| 15th of 3110–10 | Road vs home | 9–1122nd of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.