Winnipeg Jets at Ottawa Senators, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors OTT; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Jets- Mason AppletonGoals1
- Nino NiederreiterAssists1
- Nikolaj EhlersPoints1
Senators- Parker KellyGoals1
- Josh NorrisAssists1
- Parker KellyPoints1
Scoring summary
- OT4:14Nikolaj Ehlers Goal (16) Backhand, assists: Neal Pionk (14), Vladislav Namestnikov (19)2–1
- P34:43Parker Kelly Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Vladimir Tarasenko (19), Josh Norris (9)1–1
- P214:35Mason Appleton Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Nino Niederreiter (13), Dylan Samberg (12)1–0
Turning points
The 3 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P214:35Mason Appleton Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Nino Niederreiter (13), Dylan Samberg (12)WPG 1 – 0 OTT · WPG 48% → 70% +21WPG 48% → 70%+21 pts
- P34:43Parker Kelly Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Vladimir Tarasenko (19), Josh Norris (9)WPG 1 – 1 OTT · OTT 24% → 51% +27OTT 24% → 51%+27 pts
- OT4:14Nikolaj Ehlers Goal (16) Backhand, assists: Neal Pionk (14), Vladislav Namestnikov (19)WPG 2 – 1 OTT · WPG 50% → >99% +50WPG 50% → >99%+50 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Senators 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- OTT 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OTT 42%
- Fair odds
- OTT -110
- WPG +110 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WPG 3.1 – 3.2 OTT
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WPG | OTT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1542 | 1477 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +14 | −12 | WPG: Connor Hellebuyck: team allows 0.35 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈23 weighted starts) · OTT: Joonas Korpisalo: team allows 0.31 more goals than with its usual starter (≈19 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | WPG +56 Elo | WPG 58.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OTT 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | OTT 52.4% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| WPG | Stat | OTT |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 313.2 | Goals scored | 3.410th of 31 |
| 1st of 312.3 | Goals allowed | 3.729th of 31 |
| 2nd of 31+0.9 | Margin | −0.321st of 31 |
| 12th of 3151.5% | Shot share | 51.7%8th of 31 |
| 1st of 3192.6% | Save percentage | 88.4%31st of 31 |
| 2nd of 318–2 | Last 10 | 3–724th of 31 |
| 1st of 3111–6 | Road vs home | 10–1120th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.