Tampa Bay Lightning at Philadelphia Flyers, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Lightning- Nikita KucherovGoals3
- Anthony CirelliAssists2
- Nikita KucherovPoints4
Flyers- Cam AtkinsonGoals1
- Morgan FrostAssists2
- Cam AtkinsonPoints2
Scoring summary
- P319:49Nikita Kucherov Goal (31) Wrist Shot, assists: Anthony Cirelli (13), Nick Perbix (15)6–3
- P319:00Brandon Hagel Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: Anthony Cirelli (12), Calvin de Haan (4)5–3
- P30:42Cam York Goal (6) Batted, assists: Morgan Frost (15)4–3
- P217:42Michael Eyssimont Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Nikita Kucherov (49), Victor Hedman (37)4–2
- P214:04Jamie Drysdale Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Morgan Frost (14), Cam Atkinson (15)3–2
- P29:56Cam Atkinson Goal (13) Tip-In, assists: Joel Farabee (23), Sean Walker (12)3–1
- P22:24Nikita Kucherov Goal (30) Snap Shot, assists: Brayden Point (28), Steven Stamkos (24)3–0
- P118:45Nikita Kucherov Goal (29) Slap Shot, assists: Brandon Hagel (26), Darren Raddysh (13)2–0
- P11:46Brayden Point Goal (22) Tip-In, assists: Maxwell Crozier (1)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P11:46Brayden Point Goal (22) Tip-In, assists: Maxwell Crozier (1)TB 1 – 0 PHI · TB 45% → 60% +15TB 45% → 60%+15 pts
- P118:45Nikita Kucherov Goal (29) Slap Shot, assists: Brandon Hagel (26), Darren Raddysh (13)TB 2 – 0 PHI · TB 63% → 78% +15TB 63% → 78%+15 pts
- P214:04Jamie Drysdale Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Morgan Frost (14), Cam Atkinson (15)TB 3 – 2 PHI · PHI 15% → 32% +17PHI 15% → 32%+17 pts
- P217:42Michael Eyssimont Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Nikita Kucherov (49), Victor Hedman (37)TB 4 – 2 PHI · TB 70% → 87% +17TB 70% → 87%+17 pts
- P30:42Cam York Goal (6) Batted, assists: Morgan Frost (15)TB 4 – 3 PHI · PHI 11% → 28% +17PHI 11% → 28%+17 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Flyers 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 55%
- Fair odds
- PHI -122
- TB +122 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TB 3.0 – 3.2 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TB | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1511 | 1509 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +7 | +8 | TB: Andrei Vasilevskiy: team allows 0.16 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈19 weighted starts) · PHI: Samuel Ersson: team allows 0.20 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈17 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +35 Elo | PHI 55.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 55.0% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| TB | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 313.4 | Goals scored | 3.022nd of 31 |
| 22nd of 313.3 | Goals allowed | 2.98th of 31 |
| 16th of 31+0.1 | Margin | +0.115th of 31 |
| 19th of 3149.6% | Shot share | 54.2%5th of 31 |
| 23rd of 3189.7% | Save percentage | 90.6%14th of 31 |
| 4th of 317–3 | Last 10 | 6–49th of 31 |
| 24th of 319–14 | Road vs home | 11–1220th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.