Winnipeg Jets at Boston Bruins, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BOS; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Jets- Vladislav NamestnikovGoals1
- Dylan DeMeloAssists1
- Vladislav NamestnikovPoints1
Bruins- Charlie CoyleGoals1
- Charlie CoyleAssists1
- Charlie CoylePoints2
Scoring summary
- P319:05Brad Marchand Goal (21) Wrist Shot, assists: Charlie Coyle (21), David Pastrnak (37)1–4
- P314:35Jake DeBrusk Goal (12) Snap Shot, assists: none1–3
- P118:26Charlie Coyle Goal (17) Tip-In, assists: Hampus Lindholm (16), Brandon Carlo (9)1–2
- P14:16Vladislav Namestnikov Goal (6) Tip-In, assists: Dylan DeMelo (14), Nikolaj Ehlers (19)1–1
- P12:20Jakub Lauko Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Trent Frederic (12), Morgan Geekie (15)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P12:20Jakub Lauko Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Trent Frederic (12), Morgan Geekie (15)WPG 0 – 1 BOS · BOS 55% → 69% +14BOS 55% → 69%+14 pts
- P14:16Vladislav Namestnikov Goal (6) Tip-In, assists: Dylan DeMelo (14), Nikolaj Ehlers (19)WPG 1 – 1 BOS · WPG 31% → 46% +14WPG 31% → 46%+14 pts
- P118:26Charlie Coyle Goal (17) Tip-In, assists: Hampus Lindholm (16), Brandon Carlo (9)WPG 1 – 2 BOS · BOS 54% → 70% +17BOS 54% → 70%+17 pts
- P314:35Jake DeBrusk Goal (12) Snap Shot, assists: noneWPG 1 – 3 BOS · BOS 89% → >99% +10BOS 89% → >99%+10 pts
- P319:05Brad Marchand Goal (21) Wrist Shot, assists: Charlie Coyle (21), David Pastrnak (37)WPG 1 – 4 BOS · BOS >99% → 100% +0BOS >99% → 100%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Bruins 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 53%
- Fair odds
- BOS -121
- WPG +121 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WPG 3.0 – 3.2 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WPG | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1544 | 1541 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +14 | +4 | WPG: Connor Hellebuyck: team allows 0.35 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈23 weighted starts) · BOS: Jeremy Swayman: team allows 0.11 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈19 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +22 Elo | BOS 53.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 54.7% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| WPG | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 313.1 | Goals scored | 3.57th of 31 |
| 1st of 312.3 | Goals allowed | 2.64th of 31 |
| 2nd of 31+0.9 | Margin | +0.93rd of 31 |
| 13th of 3151.3% | Shot share | 49.7%18th of 31 |
| 1st of 3192.8% | Save percentage | 91.8%2nd of 31 |
| 2nd of 319–1 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 31 |
| 1st of 3112–6 | Road vs home | 14–64th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
WPG 1–0 BOS in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.