Montreal Canadiens at Boston Bruins, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BOS; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Canadiens- Joel ArmiaGoals1
- Rafael Harvey-PinardAssists1
- Brendan GallagherPoints1
Bruins- Danton HeinenGoals3
- James van RiemsdykAssists2
- Danton HeinenPoints3
Scoring summary
- P310:40Danton Heinen Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Morgan Geekie (14), Kevin Shattenkirk (8)4–9
- P39:13Pavel Zacha Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Jake DeBrusk (13), James van Riemsdyk (22)4–8
- P34:32Brad Marchand Goal (20) Wrist Shot, assists: Charlie Coyle (20)4–7
- P31:26David Pastrnak Goal (30) Wrist Shot, assists: none4–6
- P213:19Brendan Gallagher Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Rafael Harvey-Pinard (5)4–5
- P211:35Charlie Coyle Goal (16) Tip-In, assists: David Pastrnak (36), Brad Marchand (23)3–5
- P210:46Danton Heinen Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Jesper Boqvist (2), Hampus Lindholm (15)3–4
- P26:16Mike Matheson Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Sean Monahan (20), Nick Suzuki (26)3–3
- P119:05Danton Heinen Goal (6) Deflected, assists: Matt Grzelcyk (5), Charlie McAvoy (24)2–3
- P118:10Jake DeBrusk Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: James van Riemsdyk (21)2–2
- P115:00Joel Armia Goal (8) Tip-In, assists: Joshua Roy (1), Sean Monahan (19)2–1
- P112:47Brandon Carlo Goal (3) Tip-In, assists: Trent Frederic (11), Jakub Lauko (4)1–1
- P19:18Cole Caufield Goal (16) Tip-In, assists: Sean Monahan (18), Juraj Slafkovsky (12)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P115:00Joel Armia Goal (8) Tip-In, assists: Joshua Roy (1), Sean Monahan (19)MTL 2 – 1 BOS · MTL 44% → 61% +17MTL 44% → 61%+17 pts
- P118:10Jake DeBrusk Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: James van Riemsdyk (21)MTL 2 – 2 BOS · BOS 38% → 55% +17BOS 38% → 55%+17 pts
- P119:05Danton Heinen Goal (6) Deflected, assists: Matt Grzelcyk (5), Charlie McAvoy (24)MTL 2 – 3 BOS · BOS 55% → 72% +16BOS 55% → 72%+16 pts
- P26:16Mike Matheson Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Sean Monahan (20), Nick Suzuki (26)MTL 3 – 3 BOS · MTL 27% → 45% +18MTL 27% → 45%+18 pts
- P210:46Danton Heinen Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Jesper Boqvist (2), Hampus Lindholm (15)MTL 3 – 4 BOS · BOS 55% → 74% +19BOS 55% → 74%+19 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Bruins 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 63%
- Fair odds
- BOS -130
- MTL +130 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MTL 2.9 – 3.3 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MTL | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1471 | 1537 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +9 | −4 | MTL: Sam Montembeault: team allows 0.22 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈17 weighted starts) · BOS: Linus Ullmark: team allows 0.09 more goals than with its usual starter (≈15 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +89 Elo | BOS 62.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 56.6% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| MTL | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 312.8 | Goals scored | 3.411th of 31 |
| 25th of 313.5 | Goals allowed | 2.63rd of 31 |
| 27th of 31−0.7 | Margin | +0.83rd of 31 |
| 28th of 3145.6% | Shot share | 49.4%20th of 31 |
| 15th of 3190.5% | Save percentage | 92.0%2nd of 31 |
| 21st of 314–6 | Last 10 | 7–34th of 31 |
| 17th of 3110–11 | Road vs home | 13–65th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
MTL 1–1 BOS in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.