Boston Bruins at Ottawa Senators, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors OTT; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bruins- David PastrnakGoals1
- Charlie CoyleAssists2
- David PastrnakPoints2
Senators- Thomas ChabotGoals1
- Thomas ChabotAssists1
- Thomas ChabotPoints2
Scoring summary
- OT1:48Brad Marchand Goal (24) Snap Shot, assists: Charlie Coyle (24)3–2
- P316:42Vladimir Tarasenko Goal (13) Snap Shot, assists: Thomas Chabot (11), Josh Norris (11)2–2
- P219:32Thomas Chabot Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Drake Batherson (20), Tim Stützle (35)2–1
- P28:19Trent Frederic Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: Pavel Zacha (18), David Pastrnak (38)2–0
- P118:36David Pastrnak Goal (31) Slap Shot, assists: Charlie McAvoy (25), Charlie Coyle (23)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P118:36David Pastrnak Goal (31) Slap Shot, assists: Charlie McAvoy (25), Charlie Coyle (23)BOS 1 – 0 OTT · BOS 44% → 61% +17BOS 44% → 61%+17 pts
- P28:19Trent Frederic Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: Pavel Zacha (18), David Pastrnak (38)BOS 2 – 0 OTT · BOS 64% → 81% +16BOS 64% → 81%+16 pts
- P219:32Thomas Chabot Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Drake Batherson (20), Tim Stützle (35)BOS 2 – 1 OTT · OTT 13% → 30% +18OTT 13% → 30%+18 pts
- P316:42Vladimir Tarasenko Goal (13) Snap Shot, assists: Thomas Chabot (11), Josh Norris (11)BOS 2 – 2 OTT · OTT 7% → 52% +45OTT 7% → 52%+45 pts
- OT1:48Brad Marchand Goal (24) Snap Shot, assists: Charlie Coyle (24)BOS 3 – 2 OTT · BOS 48% → 94% +46BOS 48% → 94%+46 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Senators 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- OTT 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OTT 50%
- Fair odds
- OTT -135
- BOS +135 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 2.9 – 3.3 OTT
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | OTT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1542 | 1485 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | BOS on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | +7 | −2 | BOS: Jeremy Swayman: team allows 0.17 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈20 weighted starts) · OTT: Joonas Korpisalo: team allows 0.06 more goals than with its usual starter (≈20 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +2 Elo | BOS 50.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OTT 59.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | OTT 57.4% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| BOS | Stat | OTT |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 313.5 | Goals scored | 3.410th of 31 |
| 3rd of 312.6 | Goals allowed | 3.628th of 31 |
| 2nd of 31+0.9 | Margin | −0.220th of 31 |
| 18th of 3149.6% | Shot share | 52.0%8th of 31 |
| 2nd of 3191.9% | Save percentage | 88.7%31st of 31 |
| 8th of 316–4 | Last 10 | 4–622nd of 31 |
| 9th of 3113–10 | Road vs home | 10–1222nd of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.