Ottawa Senators at Montreal Canadiens, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MTL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Senators- Shane PintoGoals1
- Claude GirouxAssists1
- Mathieu JosephPoints1
Canadiens- Johnathan KovacevicGoals1
- Nick SuzukiAssists1
- Johnathan KovacevicPoints1
Scoring summary
- P317:33Mathieu Joseph Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: none4–1
- P312:31Johnathan Kovacevic Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Cole Caufield (20), Nick Suzuki (27)3–1
- P26:22Shane Pinto Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Claude Giroux (26)3–0
- P18:26Jake Sanderson Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Artem Zub (14), Tim Stützle (34)2–0
- P17:45Ridly Greig Goal (7) Backhand, assists: Erik Brannstrom (9), Josh Norris (10)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P17:45Ridly Greig Goal (7) Backhand, assists: Erik Brannstrom (9), Josh Norris (10)OTT 1 – 0 MTL · OTT 46% → 61% +15OTT 46% → 61%+15 pts
- P18:26Jake Sanderson Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Artem Zub (14), Tim Stützle (34)OTT 2 – 0 MTL · OTT 61% → 75% +14OTT 61% → 75%+14 pts
- P26:22Shane Pinto Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Claude Giroux (26)OTT 3 – 0 MTL · OTT 81% → 92% +10OTT 81% → 92%+10 pts
- P312:31Johnathan Kovacevic Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Cole Caufield (20), Nick Suzuki (27)OTT 3 – 1 MTL · MTL <1% → 2% +2MTL <1% → 2%+2 pts
- P317:33Mathieu Joseph Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: noneOTT 4 – 1 MTL · OTT >99% → >99% +0OTT >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Canadiens 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MTL 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MTL 52%
- Fair odds
- MTL -120
- OTT +120 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- OTT 3.0 – 3.2 MTL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | OTT | MTL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1480 | 1466 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −7 | −11 | OTT: Joonas Korpisalo: team allows 0.18 more goals than with its usual starter (≈19 weighted starts) · MTL: Jake Allen: team allows 0.29 more goals than with its usual starter (≈12 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MTL +17 Elo | MTL 52.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MTL 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MTL 54.5% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| OTT | Stat | MTL |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 313.4 | Goals scored | 2.826th of 31 |
| 29th of 313.7 | Goals allowed | 3.628th of 31 |
| 21st of 31−0.2 | Margin | −0.828th of 31 |
| 8th of 3152.0% | Shot share | 45.4%28th of 31 |
| 31st of 3188.5% | Save percentage | 90.1%18th of 31 |
| 25th of 313–7 | Last 10 | 4–621st of 31 |
| 28th of 315–12 | Road vs home | 9–1427th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
OTT 1–0 MTL in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.