Carolina Hurricanes at Boston Bruins, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BOS; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Hurricanes- Teuvo TeravainenGoals1
- Sebastian AhoAssists2
- Teuvo TeravainenPoints2
Bruins- Brad MarchandGoals2
- Trent FredericAssists2
- Brad MarchandPoints2
Scoring summary
- P317:33Jordan Martinook Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Teuvo Teravainen (12), Sebastian Aho (37)3–2
- P37:20Brad Marchand Goal (23) Wrist Shot, assists: Charlie Coyle (22), Trent Frederic (14)2–2
- P31:30Brad Marchand Goal (22) Wrist Shot, assists: Trent Frederic (13), Hampus Lindholm (17)2–1
- P211:50Teuvo Teravainen Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Seth Jarvis (20), Sebastian Aho (36)2–0
- P118:04Martin Necas Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Brady Skjei (19), Jack Drury (13)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P118:04Martin Necas Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Brady Skjei (19), Jack Drury (13)CAR 1 – 0 BOS · CAR 45% → 62% +17CAR 45% → 62%+17 pts
- P211:50Teuvo Teravainen Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Seth Jarvis (20), Sebastian Aho (36)CAR 2 – 0 BOS · CAR 67% → 83% +17CAR 67% → 83%+17 pts
- P31:30Brad Marchand Goal (22) Wrist Shot, assists: Trent Frederic (13), Hampus Lindholm (17)CAR 2 – 1 BOS · BOS 11% → 28% +17BOS 11% → 28%+17 pts
- P37:20Brad Marchand Goal (23) Wrist Shot, assists: Charlie Coyle (22), Trent Frederic (14)CAR 2 – 2 BOS · BOS 23% → 53% +29BOS 23% → 53%+29 pts
- P317:33Jordan Martinook Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Teuvo Teravainen (12), Sebastian Aho (37)CAR 3 – 2 BOS · CAR 49% → 96% +47CAR 49% → 96%+47 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Bruins 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 59%
- Fair odds
- BOS -127
- CAR +127 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CAR 2.9 – 3.3 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CAR | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1521 | 1545 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −13 | −6 | CAR: Spencer Martin: team allows 0.34 more goals than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · BOS: Linus Ullmark: team allows 0.15 more goals than with its usual starter (≈16 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +67 Elo | BOS 59.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 55.9% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CAR | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 313.4 | Goals scored | 3.57th of 31 |
| 15th of 313.1 | Goals allowed | 2.63rd of 31 |
| 11th of 31+0.3 | Margin | +0.92nd of 31 |
| 1st of 3157.0% | Shot share | 49.6%18th of 31 |
| 31st of 3188.6% | Save percentage | 91.9%3rd of 31 |
| 3rd of 317–3 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 31 |
| 14th of 3112–11 | Road vs home | 15–64th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.