Vancouver Canucks at Carolina Hurricanes, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CAR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Canucks- Elias LindholmGoals2
- Brock BoeserAssists2
- Elias LindholmPoints2
Hurricanes- Jordan MartinookGoals1
- Teuvo TeravainenAssists1
- Jordan MartinookPoints1
Scoring summary
- P34:00J.T. Miller Goal (22) Backhand, assists: Brock Boeser (24), Tyler Myers (16)3–2
- P218:32Sebastian Aho Goal (18) Snap Shot, assists: Brent Burns (20), Seth Jarvis (24)2–2
- P216:30Elias Lindholm Goal (11) Tip-In, assists: Quinn Hughes (52), Brock Boeser (23)2–1
- P117:23Elias Lindholm Goal (10) Tip-In, assists: Quinn Hughes (51), Elias Pettersson (38)1–1
- P14:25Jordan Martinook Goal (8) Backhand, assists: Teuvo Teravainen (14)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P14:25Jordan Martinook Goal (8) Backhand, assists: Teuvo Teravainen (14)VAN 0 – 1 CAR · CAR 55% → 69% +14CAR 55% → 69%+14 pts
- P117:23Elias Lindholm Goal (10) Tip-In, assists: Quinn Hughes (51), Elias Pettersson (38)VAN 1 – 1 CAR · VAN 30% → 46% +16VAN 30% → 46%+16 pts
- P216:30Elias Lindholm Goal (11) Tip-In, assists: Quinn Hughes (52), Brock Boeser (23)VAN 2 – 1 CAR · VAN 47% → 69% +22VAN 47% → 69%+22 pts
- P218:32Sebastian Aho Goal (18) Snap Shot, assists: Brent Burns (20), Seth Jarvis (24)VAN 2 – 2 CAR · CAR 30% → 53% +23CAR 30% → 53%+23 pts
- P34:00J.T. Miller Goal (22) Backhand, assists: Brock Boeser (24), Tyler Myers (16)VAN 3 – 2 CAR · VAN 48% → 74% +27VAN 48% → 74%+27 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Hurricanes 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CAR 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CAR 54%
- Fair odds
- CAR -121
- VAN +121 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- VAN 2.9 – 3.2 CAR
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | VAN | CAR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1555 | 1527 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +3 | +23 | VAN: Thatcher Demko: team allows 0.09 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈25 weighted starts) · CAR: Pyotr Kochetkov: team allows 0.57 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈17 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CAR +26 Elo | CAR 53.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CAR 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CAR 54.8% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| VAN | Stat | CAR |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 313.8 | Goals scored | 3.410th of 31 |
| 3rd of 312.6 | Goals allowed | 3.012th of 31 |
| 1st of 31+1.2 | Margin | +0.410th of 31 |
| 22nd of 3148.3% | Shot share | 56.8%1st of 31 |
| 4th of 3191.6% | Save percentage | 88.8%30th of 31 |
| 2nd of 318–2 | Last 10 | 7–34th of 31 |
| 3rd of 3115–10 | Road vs home | 14–99th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
VAN 1–0 CAR in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.