New Jersey Devils at Carolina Hurricanes, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CAR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Devils- Justin DowlingGoals1
- Chris TierneyAssists1
- Justin DowlingPoints1
Hurricanes- Teuvo TeravainenGoals1
- Teuvo TeravainenAssists1
- Teuvo TeravainenPoints2
Scoring summary
- P319:57Jesper Bratt Goal (18) Snap Shot, assists: Luke Hughes (18)2–3
- P35:25Justin Dowling Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Alexander Holtz (11), Chris Tierney (4)1–3
- P23:19Jordan Staal Goal (6) Tip-In, assists: Brady Skjei (20), Seth Jarvis (21)0–3
- P22:54Teuvo Teravainen Goal (16) Slap Shot, assists: Michael Bunting (21)0–2
- P11:30Sebastian Aho Goal (17) Backhand, assists: Teuvo Teravainen (13), Jaccob Slavin (16)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P11:30Sebastian Aho Goal (17) Backhand, assists: Teuvo Teravainen (13), Jaccob Slavin (16)NJ 0 – 1 CAR · CAR 51% → 65% +14CAR 51% → 65%+14 pts
- P22:54Teuvo Teravainen Goal (16) Slap Shot, assists: Michael Bunting (21)NJ 0 – 2 CAR · CAR 69% → 83% +14CAR 69% → 83%+14 pts
- P23:19Jordan Staal Goal (6) Tip-In, assists: Brady Skjei (20), Seth Jarvis (21)NJ 0 – 3 CAR · CAR 83% → 92% +9CAR 83% → 92%+9 pts
- P35:25Justin Dowling Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Alexander Holtz (11), Chris Tierney (4)NJ 1 – 3 CAR · NJ 1% → 7% +5NJ 1% → 7%+5 pts
- P319:57Jesper Bratt Goal (18) Snap Shot, assists: Luke Hughes (18)NJ 2 – 3 CAR · NJ 0% → 0% +0NJ 0% → 0%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Hurricanes 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CAR 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CAR 53%
- Fair odds
- CAR -105
- NJ +105 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NJ 3.1 – 3.1 CAR
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NJ | CAR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1502 | 1524 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | — | −30 | CAR on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −3 | −12 | NJ: Nico Daws: team allows 0.08 more goals than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · CAR: Antti Raanta: team allows 0.29 more goals than with its usual starter (≈15 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CAR +19 Elo | CAR 52.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CAR 50.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CAR 51.1% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NJ | Stat | CAR |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 313.5 | Goals scored | 3.410th of 31 |
| 26th of 313.5 | Goals allowed | 3.114th of 31 |
| 18th of 310.0 | Margin | +0.310th of 31 |
| 11th of 3151.4% | Shot share | 56.9%1st of 31 |
| 29th of 3188.9% | Save percentage | 88.7%30th of 31 |
| 16th of 315–5 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 31 |
| 1st of 3114–8 | Road vs home | 13–910th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.