Vegas Golden Knights at New Jersey Devils, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NJ; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Golden Knights- Jonathan MarchessaultGoals2
- Nicolas RoyAssists2
- Jonathan MarchessaultPoints3
Devils- Curtis LazarGoals2
- Nathan BastianAssists2
- Curtis LazarPoints2
Scoring summary
- OT2:35Tyler Toffoli Goal (20) Wrist Shot, assists: Luke Hughes (17)5–6
- P39:14Curtis Lazar Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Simon Nemec (10), Nathan Bastian (7)5–5
- P219:44Tyler Toffoli Goal (19) Wrist Shot, assists: Dawson Mercer (10)5–4
- P219:08Nicolas Roy Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Jonathan Marchessault (14)5–3
- P210:48Chandler Stephenson Goal (8) Tip-In, assists: Mark Stone (34), Alec Martinez (5)4–3
- P210:00Jonathan Marchessault Goal (22) Wrist Shot, assists: Ivan Barbashev (13), Nicolas Roy (13)3–3
- P27:39Jonathan Marchessault Goal (21) Tip-In, assists: Nicolas Roy (12), Kaedan Korczak (8)2–3
- P21:37Tyler Toffoli Goal (18) Snap Shot, assists: Simon Nemec (9), Kevin Bahl (7)1–3
- P119:38Curtis Lazar Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Erik Haula (13), Nathan Bastian (6)1–2
- P115:21Nico Hischier Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Timo Meier (9), Jesper Bratt (31)1–1
- P16:12Pavel Dorofeyev Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Chandler Stephenson (18), Mark Stone (33)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P210:00Jonathan Marchessault Goal (22) Wrist Shot, assists: Ivan Barbashev (13), Nicolas Roy (13)VGK 3 – 3 NJ · VGK 28% → 47% +19VGK 28% → 47%+19 pts
- P210:48Chandler Stephenson Goal (8) Tip-In, assists: Mark Stone (34), Alec Martinez (5)VGK 4 – 3 NJ · VGK 47% → 67% +20VGK 47% → 67%+20 pts
- P219:44Tyler Toffoli Goal (19) Wrist Shot, assists: Dawson Mercer (10)VGK 5 – 4 NJ · NJ 12% → 29% +17NJ 12% → 29%+17 pts
- P39:14Curtis Lazar Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Simon Nemec (10), Nathan Bastian (7)VGK 5 – 5 NJ · NJ 21% → 52% +31NJ 21% → 52%+31 pts
- OT2:35Tyler Toffoli Goal (20) Wrist Shot, assists: Luke Hughes (17)VGK 5 – 6 NJ · NJ 51% → 97% +46NJ 51% → 97%+46 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Devils 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NJ 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NJ 51%
- Fair odds
- NJ -119
- VGK +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- VGK 3.0 – 3.2 NJ
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | VGK | NJ | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1523 | 1500 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +7 | +3 | VGK: Logan Thompson: team allows 0.19 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈20 weighted starts) · NJ: Vitek Vanecek: team allows 0.08 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈19 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NJ +8 Elo | NJ 51.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NJ 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NJ 54.2% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| VGK | Stat | NJ |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 313.3 | Goals scored | 3.49th of 31 |
| 5th of 312.7 | Goals allowed | 3.524th of 31 |
| 7th of 31+0.6 | Margin | −0.118th of 31 |
| 15th of 3150.9% | Shot share | 51.3%11th of 31 |
| 5th of 3191.6% | Save percentage | 89.0%29th of 31 |
| 9th of 316–4 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 31 |
| 19th of 319–11 | Road vs home | 9–1225th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.