Nashville Predators at Vegas Golden Knights, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors VGK; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Predators- Luke EvangelistaGoals1
- Roman JosiAssists1
- Luke EvangelistaPoints1
Golden Knights- Mark StoneGoals3
- Chandler StephensonAssists2
- Mark StonePoints3
Scoring summary
- P319:41Jonathan Marchessault Goal (18) Wrist Shot, assists: Alex Pietrangelo (16), Nicolas Roy (9)1–4
- P219:36Mark Stone Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Chandler Stephenson (15)1–3
- P217:22Luke Evangelista Goal (9) Deflected, assists: Alexandre Carrier (10), Roman Josi (29)1–2
- P21:11Mark Stone Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: Chandler Stephenson (14), Pavel Dorofeyev (7)0–2
- P115:25Mark Stone Goal (13) Snap Shot, assists: Pavel Dorofeyev (6), Nicolas Hague (7)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P115:25Mark Stone Goal (13) Snap Shot, assists: Pavel Dorofeyev (6), Nicolas Hague (7)NSH 0 – 1 VGK · VGK 54% → 70% +16VGK 54% → 70%+16 pts
- P21:11Mark Stone Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: Chandler Stephenson (14), Pavel Dorofeyev (7)NSH 0 – 2 VGK · VGK 71% → 84% +13VGK 71% → 84%+13 pts
- P217:22Luke Evangelista Goal (9) Deflected, assists: Alexandre Carrier (10), Roman Josi (29)NSH 1 – 2 VGK · NSH 10% → 25% +15NSH 10% → 25%+15 pts
- P219:36Mark Stone Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Chandler Stephenson (15)NSH 1 – 3 VGK · VGK 76% → 91% +15VGK 76% → 91%+15 pts
- P319:41Jonathan Marchessault Goal (18) Wrist Shot, assists: Alex Pietrangelo (16), Nicolas Roy (9)NSH 1 – 4 VGK · VGK 100% → 100% +0VGK 100% → 100%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Golden Knights 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- VGK 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- VGK 55%
- Fair odds
- VGK -123
- NSH +123 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NSH 3.0 – 3.2 VGK
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NSH | VGK | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1509 | 1512 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +2 | +1 | NSH: Juuse Saros: team allows 0.06 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈24 weighted starts) · VGK: Logan Thompson: team allows 0.03 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈19 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | VGK +37 Elo | VGK 55.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | VGK 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | VGK 55.1% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NSH | Stat | VGK |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 313.2 | Goals scored | 3.213th of 31 |
| 13th of 313.0 | Goals allowed | 2.87th of 31 |
| 15th of 31+0.1 | Margin | +0.59th of 31 |
| 16th of 3150.1% | Shot share | 51.1%14th of 31 |
| 15th of 3190.4% | Save percentage | 91.3%5th of 31 |
| 15th of 315–5 | Last 10 | 3–722nd of 31 |
| 8th of 3111–8 | Road vs home | 15–63rd of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.