Pittsburgh Penguins at Vegas Golden Knights, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors VGK; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Penguins- Ryan GravesGoals1
- Erik KarlssonAssists1
- Ryan GravesPoints1
Golden Knights- Pavel DorofeyevGoals1
- Ivan BarbashevAssists2
- Ivan BarbashevPoints2
Scoring summary
- P39:40Brendan Brisson Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Ivan Barbashev (12), Alex Pietrangelo (17)2–3
- P36:52Pavel Dorofeyev Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Chandler Stephenson (17), Mark Stone (32)2–2
- P35:18Jonathan Marchessault Goal (20) Wrist Shot, assists: Ivan Barbashev (11), Alec Martinez (4)2–1
- P214:01Jake Guentzel Goal (20) Snap Shot, assists: Sidney Crosby (21), Marcus Pettersson (16)2–0
- P29:02Ryan Graves Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Erik Karlsson (25), Evgeni Malkin (22)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P29:02Ryan Graves Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Erik Karlsson (25), Evgeni Malkin (22)PIT 1 – 0 VGK · PIT 46% → 66% +20PIT 46% → 66%+20 pts
- P214:01Jake Guentzel Goal (20) Snap Shot, assists: Sidney Crosby (21), Marcus Pettersson (16)PIT 2 – 0 VGK · PIT 68% → 85% +17PIT 68% → 85%+17 pts
- P35:18Jonathan Marchessault Goal (20) Wrist Shot, assists: Ivan Barbashev (11), Alec Martinez (4)PIT 2 – 1 VGK · VGK 8% → 25% +17VGK 8% → 25%+17 pts
- P36:52Pavel Dorofeyev Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Chandler Stephenson (17), Mark Stone (32)PIT 2 – 2 VGK · VGK 24% → 53% +29VGK 24% → 53%+29 pts
- P39:40Brendan Brisson Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Ivan Barbashev (12), Alex Pietrangelo (17)PIT 2 – 3 VGK · VGK 52% → 83% +30VGK 52% → 83%+30 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Golden Knights 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- VGK 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- VGK 58%
- Fair odds
- VGK -125
- PIT +125 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PIT 3.0 – 3.3 VGK
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PIT | VGK | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1509 | 1521 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +1 | +7 | PIT: Tristan Jarry: team allows 0.03 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈21 weighted starts) · VGK: Logan Thompson: team allows 0.17 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈20 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | VGK +53 Elo | VGK 57.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | VGK 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | VGK 55.5% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| PIT | Stat | VGK |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 313.0 | Goals scored | 3.313th of 31 |
| 7th of 312.7 | Goals allowed | 2.75th of 31 |
| 12th of 31+0.3 | Margin | +0.67th of 31 |
| 8th of 3152.0% | Shot share | 50.9%14th of 31 |
| 4th of 3191.6% | Save percentage | 91.6%5th of 31 |
| 10th of 316–4 | Last 10 | 5–515th of 31 |
| 15th of 3110–11 | Road vs home | 17–63rd of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
PIT 1–0 VGK in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.