New York Rangers at Vegas Golden Knights, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors VGK; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rangers- Mika ZibanejadGoals1
- Chris KreiderAssists1
- Mika ZibanejadPoints1
Golden Knights- Ivan BarbashevGoals2
- Nicolas RoyAssists2
- Ivan BarbashevPoints2
Scoring summary
- P318:32Brett Howden Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Mark Stone (31)1–5
- P30:40Mika Zibanejad Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Chris Kreider (19), Artemi Panarin (34)1–4
- P218:24Keegan Kolesar Goal (3) Tip-In, assists: Kaedan Korczak (7), Brett Howden (8)0–4
- P217:59Ivan Barbashev Goal (11) Snap Shot, assists: Mark Stone (30), Chandler Stephenson (16)0–3
- P114:48Ivan Barbashev Goal (10) Deflected, assists: Nicolas Roy (11), Jonathan Marchessault (13)0–2
- P111:35Jonathan Marchessault Goal (19) Wrist Shot, assists: Nicolas Roy (10), Nicolas Hague (8)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P111:35Jonathan Marchessault Goal (19) Wrist Shot, assists: Nicolas Roy (10), Nicolas Hague (8)NYR 0 – 1 VGK · VGK 54% → 70% +15VGK 54% → 70%+15 pts
- P114:48Ivan Barbashev Goal (10) Deflected, assists: Nicolas Roy (11), Jonathan Marchessault (13)NYR 0 – 2 VGK · VGK 70% → 83% +13VGK 70% → 83%+13 pts
- P217:59Ivan Barbashev Goal (11) Snap Shot, assists: Mark Stone (30), Chandler Stephenson (16)NYR 0 – 3 VGK · VGK 90% → 97% +7VGK 90% → 97%+7 pts
- P218:24Keegan Kolesar Goal (3) Tip-In, assists: Kaedan Korczak (7), Brett Howden (8)NYR 0 – 4 VGK · VGK 97% → >99% +2VGK 97% → >99%+2 pts
- P30:40Mika Zibanejad Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Chris Kreider (19), Artemi Panarin (34)NYR 1 – 4 VGK · NYR <1% → 2% +2NYR <1% → 2%+2 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Golden Knights 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- VGK 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- VGK 55%
- Fair odds
- VGK -122
- NYR +122 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYR 3.0 – 3.2 VGK
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYR | VGK | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1527 | 1516 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −3 | +4 | NYR: Igor Shesterkin: team allows 0.07 more goals than with its usual starter (≈21 weighted starts) · VGK: Logan Thompson: team allows 0.11 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈19 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | VGK +32 Elo | VGK 54.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | VGK 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | VGK 54.9% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NYR | Stat | VGK |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 313.4 | Goals scored | 3.313th of 31 |
| 10th of 312.9 | Goals allowed | 2.78th of 31 |
| 10th of 31+0.5 | Margin | +0.57th of 31 |
| 15th of 3150.8% | Shot share | 50.9%14th of 31 |
| 13th of 3190.7% | Save percentage | 91.5%5th of 31 |
| 20th of 314–6 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 31 |
| 6th of 3113–9 | Road vs home | 16–63rd of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.