Calgary Flames at Boston Bruins, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BOS; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Flames- Jonathan HuberdeauGoals1
- Nazem KadriAssists3
- Jonathan HuberdeauPoints3
Bruins- Pavel ZachaGoals1
- David PastrnakAssists1
- Pavel ZachaPoints1
Scoring summary
- P39:44Noah Hanifin Goal (9) Backhand, assists: Jonathan Huberdeau (22), Jacob Markstrom (3)4–1
- P36:23Jonathan Huberdeau Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Nazem Kadri (26)3–1
- P34:14Pavel Zacha Goal (11) Slap Shot, assists: David Pastrnak (40), Charlie Coyle (25)2–1
- P113:01Connor Zary Goal (11) Backhand, assists: Nazem Kadri (25)2–0
- P14:20Andrei Kuzmenko Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Jonathan Huberdeau (21), Nazem Kadri (24)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P14:20Andrei Kuzmenko Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Jonathan Huberdeau (21), Nazem Kadri (24)CGY 1 – 0 BOS · CGY 43% → 58% +15CGY 43% → 58%+15 pts
- P113:01Connor Zary Goal (11) Backhand, assists: Nazem Kadri (25)CGY 2 – 0 BOS · CGY 60% → 75% +15CGY 60% → 75%+15 pts
- P34:14Pavel Zacha Goal (11) Slap Shot, assists: David Pastrnak (40), Charlie Coyle (25)CGY 2 – 1 BOS · BOS 9% → 27% +18BOS 9% → 27%+18 pts
- P36:23Jonathan Huberdeau Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Nazem Kadri (26)CGY 3 – 1 BOS · CGY 75% → 93% +17CGY 75% → 93%+17 pts
- P39:44Noah Hanifin Goal (9) Backhand, assists: Jonathan Huberdeau (22), Jacob Markstrom (3)CGY 4 – 1 BOS · CGY 95% → >99% +4CGY 95% → >99%+4 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Bruins 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 64%
- Fair odds
- BOS -131
- CGY +131 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CGY 2.9 – 3.3 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CGY | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1485 | 1550 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +10 | +8 | CGY: Jacob Markstrom: team allows 0.25 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈22 weighted starts) · BOS: Jeremy Swayman: team allows 0.19 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈20 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +98 Elo | BOS 63.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 56.8% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CGY | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 313.0 | Goals scored | 3.56th of 31 |
| 19th of 313.2 | Goals allowed | 2.62nd of 31 |
| 23rd of 31−0.2 | Margin | +0.92nd of 31 |
| 11th of 3151.3% | Shot share | 49.2%21st of 31 |
| 19th of 3190.1% | Save percentage | 92.0%2nd of 31 |
| 18th of 314–6 | Last 10 | 7–34th of 31 |
| 26th of 319–14 | Road vs home | 15–74th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.