Chicago Blackhawks at Calgary Flames, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each period. Above the line favors CGY.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blackhawks
Flames- Nazem KadriAssists1
- Nazem KadriPoints1
Scoring summary
- P215:55Elias Lindholm Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Yegor Sharangovich (15), Nazem Kadri (23)0–1
Turning points
The play that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P215:55Elias Lindholm Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Yegor Sharangovich (15), Nazem Kadri (23)CHI 0 – 1 CGY · CGY 54% → 75% +21CGY 54% → 75%+21 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Flames 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CGY 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CGY 62%
- Fair odds
- CGY -129
- CHI +129 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHI 2.9 – 3.3 CGY
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHI | CGY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1432 | 1483 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +9 | +6 | CHI: Petr Mrazek: team allows 0.22 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈23 weighted starts) · CGY: Jacob Markstrom: team allows 0.15 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈21 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CGY +84 Elo | CGY 61.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CGY 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CGY 56.4% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CHI | Stat | CGY |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 312.2 | Goals scored | 3.017th of 31 |
| 24th of 313.5 | Goals allowed | 3.321st of 31 |
| 30th of 31−1.3 | Margin | −0.323rd of 31 |
| 30th of 3144.8% | Shot share | 51.4%11th of 31 |
| 23rd of 3189.8% | Save percentage | 89.9%21st of 31 |
| 26th of 313–7 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 31 |
| 31st of 314–22 | Road vs home | 10–1220th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CHI 1–0 CGY in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.