Chicago Blackhawks at Seattle Kraken, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SEA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blackhawks- Nick FolignoGoals1
- Seth JonesAssists2
- Seth JonesPoints2
Kraken- Tomas TatarGoals2
- Jordan EberleAssists2
- Tomas TatarPoints2
Scoring summary
- P316:22Tomas Tatar Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Will Borgen (16), Jared McCann (13)2–6
- P34:28Tomas Tatar Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Jordan Eberle (18), Justin Schultz (12)2–5
- P30:39Nick Foligno Goal (9) Tip-In, assists: Philipp Kurashev (16), Seth Jones (14)2–4
- P217:28Brandon Tanev Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Brian Dumoulin (7), Tye Kartye (7)1–4
- P20:15Alex Wennberg Goal (8) , assists: none1–3
- P117:20Joey Anderson Goal (2) Slap Shot, assists: Seth Jones (13), Jason Dickinson (10)1–2
- P17:12Jaden Schwartz Goal (10) Deflected, assists: Andre Burakovsky (5), Vince Dunn (28)0–2
- P14:34Jared McCann Goal (19) Snap Shot, assists: Jordan Eberle (17), Justin Schultz (11)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P14:34Jared McCann Goal (19) Snap Shot, assists: Jordan Eberle (17), Justin Schultz (11)CHI 0 – 1 SEA · SEA 57% → 71% +14SEA 57% → 71%+14 pts
- P17:12Jaden Schwartz Goal (10) Deflected, assists: Andre Burakovsky (5), Vince Dunn (28)CHI 0 – 2 SEA · SEA 71% → 83% +12SEA 71% → 83%+12 pts
- P117:20Joey Anderson Goal (2) Slap Shot, assists: Seth Jones (13), Jason Dickinson (10)CHI 1 – 2 SEA · CHI 16% → 28% +13CHI 16% → 28%+13 pts
- P20:15Alex Wennberg Goal (8) , assists: noneCHI 1 – 3 SEA · SEA 72% → 85% +13SEA 72% → 85%+13 pts
- P217:28Brandon Tanev Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Brian Dumoulin (7), Tye Kartye (7)CHI 1 – 4 SEA · SEA 90% → 97% +7SEA 90% → 97%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Kraken 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 64%
- Fair odds
- SEA -132
- CHI +132 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHI 2.9 – 3.3 SEA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHI | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1438 | 1481 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −14 | +7 | CHI: Arvid Soderblom: team allows 0.36 more goals than with its usual starter (≈14 weighted starts) · SEA: Joey Daccord: team allows 0.18 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈20 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +100 Elo | SEA 64.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 56.9% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CHI | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 312.2 | Goals scored | 2.827th of 31 |
| 24th of 313.5 | Goals allowed | 3.011th of 31 |
| 30th of 31−1.2 | Margin | −0.221st of 31 |
| 30th of 3144.6% | Shot share | 49.1%21st of 31 |
| 21st of 3189.9% | Save percentage | 91.0%8th of 31 |
| 25th of 313–7 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 31 |
| 31st of 314–20 | Road vs home | 8–1226th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CHI 1–1 SEA in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.