Toronto Maple Leafs at Seattle Kraken, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SEA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Maple Leafs- Jake McCabeGoals1
- Mitch MarnerAssists1
- Jake McCabePoints1
Kraken- Jordan EberleGoals1
- Tomas TatarAssists1
- Jordan EberlePoints1
Scoring summary
- P319:39Jake McCabe Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: none3–1
- P214:03Jordan Eberle Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Jared McCann (12), Tomas Tatar (12)2–1
- P22:51Nicholas Robertson Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Max Domi (20), Tyler Bertuzzi (14)2–0
- P17:06Auston Matthews Goal (38) Backhand, assists: Mitchell Marner (31)1–0
Turning points
The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P17:06Auston Matthews Goal (38) Backhand, assists: Mitchell Marner (31)TOR 1 – 0 SEA · TOR 41% → 56% +15TOR 41% → 56%+15 pts
- P22:51Nicholas Robertson Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Max Domi (20), Tyler Bertuzzi (14)TOR 2 – 0 SEA · TOR 60% → 77% +16TOR 60% → 77%+16 pts
- P214:03Jordan Eberle Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Jared McCann (12), Tomas Tatar (12)TOR 2 – 1 SEA · SEA 17% → 35% +18SEA 17% → 35%+18 pts
- P319:39Jake McCabe Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: noneTOR 3 – 1 SEA · TOR >99% → 100% +0TOR >99% → 100%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Kraken 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 63%
- Fair odds
- SEA -151
- TOR +151 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 2.8 – 3.4 SEA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1499 | 1486 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | TOR on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −35 | +9 | TOR: Ilya Samsonov: team allows 0.88 more goals than with its usual starter (≈14 weighted starts) · SEA: Joey Daccord: team allows 0.22 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈20 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +96 Elo | SEA 63.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 59.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 60.1% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| TOR | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 313.6 | Goals scored | 2.827th of 31 |
| 22nd of 313.3 | Goals allowed | 3.012th of 31 |
| 13th of 31+0.3 | Margin | −0.219th of 31 |
| 7th of 3152.1% | Shot share | 49.3%21st of 31 |
| 21st of 3189.8% | Save percentage | 91.0%9th of 31 |
| 15th of 315–5 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 31 |
| 15th of 3110–11 | Road vs home | 8–1126th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
TOR 1–0 SEA in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.