Chicago Blackhawks at Edmonton Oilers, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors EDM; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blackhawks
Oilers- Connor McDavidGoals2
- Leon DraisaitlAssists3
- Connor McDavidPoints3
Scoring summary
- P318:45Connor McDavid Goal (19) Wrist Shot, assists: Leon Draisaitl (32)0–3
- P36:34Zach Hyman Goal (29) Wrist Shot, assists: Connor McDavid (44), Leon Draisaitl (31)0–2
- P21:37Connor McDavid Goal (18) Backhand, assists: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (31), Leon Draisaitl (30)0–1
Turning points
The 3 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P21:37Connor McDavid Goal (18) Backhand, assists: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (31), Leon Draisaitl (30)CHI 0 – 1 EDM · EDM 59% → 76% +16EDM 59% → 76%+16 pts
- P36:34Zach Hyman Goal (29) Wrist Shot, assists: Connor McDavid (44), Leon Draisaitl (31)CHI 0 – 2 EDM · EDM 82% → 95% +13EDM 82% → 95%+13 pts
- P318:45Connor McDavid Goal (19) Wrist Shot, assists: Leon Draisaitl (32)CHI 0 – 3 EDM · EDM >99% → >99% +0EDM >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Oilers 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- EDM 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- EDM 71%
- Fair odds
- EDM -162
- CHI +162 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHI 2.8 – 3.4 EDM
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHI | EDM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1434 | 1542 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | CHI on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | +10 | −6 | CHI: Petr Mrazek: team allows 0.24 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈23 weighted starts) · EDM: Calvin Pickard: team allows 0.15 more goals than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | EDM +157 Elo | EDM 71.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | EDM 59.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | EDM 61.8% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CHI | Stat | EDM |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 312.2 | Goals scored | 3.64th of 31 |
| 24th of 313.5 | Goals allowed | 2.98th of 31 |
| 30th of 31−1.3 | Margin | +0.75th of 31 |
| 30th of 3144.8% | Shot share | 54.9%4th of 31 |
| 22nd of 3189.7% | Save percentage | 90.2%17th of 31 |
| 26th of 313–7 | Last 10 | 10–01st of 31 |
| 31st of 314–21 | Road vs home | 13–78th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CHI 0–2 EDM in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.