Washington Capitals at Dallas Stars, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Capitals- Alex OvechkinGoals1
- Alex OvechkinAssists1
- Alex OvechkinPoints2
Stars- Thomas HarleyGoals2
- Miro HeiskanenAssists2
- Thomas HarleyPoints2
Scoring summary
- OT3:27Thomas Harley Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Jason Robertson (33), Matt Duchene (28)4–5
- P319:17Dylan Strome Goal (19) Snap Shot, assists: Anthony Mantha (8), Alex Ovechkin (22)4–4
- P318:00Alex Ovechkin Goal (9) Slap Shot, assists: T.J. Oshie (4), Evgeny Kuznetsov (11)3–4
- P32:24Matt Duchene Goal (17) Wrist Shot, assists: Mason Marchment (21), Tyler Seguin (22)2–4
- P211:00Mason Marchment Goal (16) Tip-In, assists: Tyler Seguin (21), Miro Heiskanen (25)2–3
- P26:24Rasmus Sandin Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Nicolas Aube-Kubel (8), Trevor van Riemsdyk (8)2–2
- P111:07Thomas Harley Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Jamie Benn (21), Sam Steel (10)1–2
- P110:44Wyatt Johnston Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: Roope Hintz (25), Miro Heiskanen (24)1–1
- P19:40Anthony Mantha Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Evgeny Kuznetsov (10), John Carlson (25)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P110:44Wyatt Johnston Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: Roope Hintz (25), Miro Heiskanen (24)WSH 1 – 1 DAL · DAL 40% → 56% +16DAL 40% → 56%+16 pts
- P26:24Rasmus Sandin Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Nicolas Aube-Kubel (8), Trevor van Riemsdyk (8)WSH 2 – 2 DAL · WSH 27% → 45% +18WSH 27% → 45%+18 pts
- P211:00Mason Marchment Goal (16) Tip-In, assists: Tyler Seguin (21), Miro Heiskanen (25)WSH 2 – 3 DAL · DAL 54% → 74% +19DAL 54% → 74%+19 pts
- P319:17Dylan Strome Goal (19) Snap Shot, assists: Anthony Mantha (8), Alex Ovechkin (22)WSH 4 – 4 DAL · WSH <1% → 49% +49WSH <1% → 49%+49 pts
- OT3:27Thomas Harley Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Jason Robertson (33), Matt Duchene (28)WSH 4 – 5 DAL · DAL 51% → 99% +48DAL 51% → 99%+48 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Stars 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- DAL 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DAL 61%
- Fair odds
- DAL -129
- WSH +129 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 3.0 – 3.3 DAL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | DAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1480 | 1529 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +2 | −4 | WSH: Charlie Lindgren: team allows 0.04 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈16 weighted starts) · DAL: Jake Oettinger: team allows 0.11 more goals than with its usual starter (≈20 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DAL +79 Elo | DAL 61.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DAL 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DAL 56.3% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| WSH | Stat | DAL |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 312.5 | Goals scored | 3.73rd of 31 |
| 11th of 313.0 | Goals allowed | 3.115th of 31 |
| 25th of 31−0.5 | Margin | +0.66th of 31 |
| 23rd of 3147.3% | Shot share | 50.3%15th of 31 |
| 12th of 3190.6% | Save percentage | 90.3%16th of 31 |
| 19th of 314–6 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 31 |
| 21st of 319–12 | Road vs home | 14–1012th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
WSH 0–1 DAL in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.