Anaheim Ducks at Dallas Stars, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Ducks- Jakob SilfverbergGoals1
- Isac LundestromAssists2
- Jakob SilfverbergPoints2
Stars- Thomas HarleyGoals1
- Thomas HarleyAssists1
- Thomas HarleyPoints2
Scoring summary
- OT0:38Thomas Harley Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Joe Pavelski (24)3–4
- P310:31Miro Heiskanen Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Thomas Harley (17), Evgenii Dadonov (11)3–3
- P30:12Jakob Silfverberg Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Isac Lundestrom (2), Mason McTavish (17)3–2
- P26:44Craig Smith Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: none2–2
- P21:28Troy Terry Goal (12) Snap Shot, assists: Adam Henrique (15)2–1
- P115:10Urho Vaakanainen Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Isac Lundestrom (1), Jakob Silfverberg (7)1–1
- P12:22Matt Duchene Goal (16) Wrist Shot, assists: Mason Marchment (20), Tyler Seguin (20)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P21:28Troy Terry Goal (12) Snap Shot, assists: Adam Henrique (15)ANA 2 – 1 DAL · ANA 44% → 62% +18ANA 44% → 62%+18 pts
- P26:44Craig Smith Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: noneANA 2 – 2 DAL · DAL 36% → 55% +19DAL 36% → 55%+19 pts
- P30:12Jakob Silfverberg Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Isac Lundestrom (2), Mason McTavish (17)ANA 3 – 2 DAL · ANA 46% → 70% +24ANA 46% → 70%+24 pts
- P310:31Miro Heiskanen Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Thomas Harley (17), Evgenii Dadonov (11)ANA 3 – 3 DAL · DAL 20% → 53% +33DAL 20% → 53%+33 pts
- OT0:38Thomas Harley Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Joe Pavelski (24)ANA 3 – 4 DAL · DAL 52% → 92% +40DAL 52% → 92%+40 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Stars 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- DAL 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DAL 64%
- Fair odds
- DAL -132
- ANA +132 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ANA 2.9 – 3.3 DAL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ANA | DAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1452 | 1528 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +5 | −5 | ANA: John Gibson: team allows 0.12 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈22 weighted starts) · DAL: Jake Oettinger: team allows 0.13 more goals than with its usual starter (≈19 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DAL +100 Elo | DAL 64.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DAL 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DAL 56.9% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| ANA | Stat | DAL |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 312.6 | Goals scored | 3.73rd of 31 |
| 27th of 313.5 | Goals allowed | 3.115th of 31 |
| 29th of 31−0.9 | Margin | +0.66th of 31 |
| 26th of 3147.0% | Shot share | 49.9%17th of 31 |
| 21st of 3189.8% | Save percentage | 90.3%15th of 31 |
| 26th of 313–7 | Last 10 | 6–49th of 31 |
| 20th of 319–12 | Road vs home | 13–1012th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
ANA 0–1 DAL in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.