Anaheim Ducks at San Jose Sharks, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SJ; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Ducks- Jackson LaCombeGoals1
- Troy TerryAssists2
- Troy TerryPoints2
Sharks- Fabian ZetterlundGoals1
- Fabian ZetterlundAssists1
- Fabian ZetterlundPoints2
Scoring summary
- P319:53Tomas Hertl Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: Nico Sturm (3)3–5
- P315:11Mason McTavish Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Troy Terry (18)3–4
- P312:15Jan Rutta Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Fabian Zetterlund (7), Mike Hoffman (8)2–4
- P219:56Adam Henrique Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Troy Terry (17), Leo Carlsson (8)2–3
- P219:32Fabian Zetterlund Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan Carpenter (5)1–3
- P217:33Kyle Burroughs Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Tomas Hertl (18)1–2
- P215:21Jackson LaCombe Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Adam Henrique (14)1–1
- P215:06Marc-Edouard Vlasic Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Logan Couture (1)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P215:06Marc-Edouard Vlasic Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Logan Couture (1)ANA 0 – 1 SJ · SJ 53% → 74% +21SJ 53% → 74%+21 pts
- P215:21Jackson LaCombe Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Adam Henrique (14)ANA 1 – 1 SJ · ANA 26% → 47% +21ANA 26% → 47%+21 pts
- P217:33Kyle Burroughs Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Tomas Hertl (18)ANA 1 – 2 SJ · SJ 52% → 74% +22SJ 52% → 74%+22 pts
- P219:32Fabian Zetterlund Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan Carpenter (5)ANA 1 – 3 SJ · SJ 75% → 90% +15SJ 75% → 90%+15 pts
- P219:56Adam Henrique Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Troy Terry (17), Leo Carlsson (8)ANA 2 – 3 SJ · ANA 9% → 25% +15ANA 9% → 25%+15 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Sharks 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- SJ 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SJ 50%
- Fair odds
- SJ -117
- ANA +117 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ANA 3.0 – 3.2 SJ
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ANA | SJ | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1456 | 1420 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +5 | +4 | ANA: John Gibson: team allows 0.13 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈20 weighted starts) · SJ: Mackenzie Blackwood: team allows 0.11 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈20 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ANA +2 Elo | ANA 50.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SJ 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SJ 54.0% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| ANA | Stat | SJ |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 312.6 | Goals scored | 2.031st of 31 |
| 24th of 313.5 | Goals allowed | 4.131st of 31 |
| 29th of 31−0.9 | Margin | −2.131st of 31 |
| 26th of 3146.6% | Shot share | 41.8%31st of 31 |
| 20th of 3189.9% | Save percentage | 89.3%28th of 31 |
| 24th of 313–7 | Last 10 | 1–930th of 31 |
| 19th of 319–11 | Road vs home | 6–1329th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
ANA 1–0 SJ in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.