Buffalo Sabres at Anaheim Ducks, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ANA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Sabres- Jordan GreenwayGoals1
- Jordan GreenwayAssists1
- Jordan GreenwayPoints2
Ducks- Jakob SilfverbergGoals2
- Cam FowlerAssists2
- Jakob SilfverbergPoints2
Scoring summary
- P318:51Adam Henrique Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Frank Vatrano (13), Cam Fowler (20)2–4
- P317:04Kyle Okposo Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Tage Thompson (14), Jordan Greenway (8)2–3
- P314:41Jordan Greenway Goal (5) Tip-In, assists: Rasmus Dahlin (25), Dylan Cozens (16)1–3
- P24:30Jakob Silfverberg Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Mason McTavish (16)0–3
- P23:37Sam Carrick Goal (7) Batted, assists: Olen Zellweger (1), Troy Terry (21)0–2
- P15:51Jakob Silfverberg Goal (3) Tip-In, assists: Radko Gudas (6), Cam Fowler (19)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P15:51Jakob Silfverberg Goal (3) Tip-In, assists: Radko Gudas (6), Cam Fowler (19)BUF 0 – 1 ANA · ANA 53% → 68% +15ANA 53% → 68%+15 pts
- P23:37Sam Carrick Goal (7) Batted, assists: Olen Zellweger (1), Troy Terry (21)BUF 0 – 2 ANA · ANA 70% → 84% +14ANA 70% → 84%+14 pts
- P24:30Jakob Silfverberg Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Mason McTavish (16)BUF 0 – 3 ANA · ANA 85% → 93% +9ANA 85% → 93%+9 pts
- P314:41Jordan Greenway Goal (5) Tip-In, assists: Rasmus Dahlin (25), Dylan Cozens (16)BUF 1 – 3 ANA · BUF <1% → <1% +1BUF <1% → <1%+1 pts
- P317:04Kyle Okposo Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Tage Thompson (14), Jordan Greenway (8)BUF 2 – 3 ANA · BUF <1% → 5% +5BUF <1% → 5%+5 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Ducks 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- ANA 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ANA 48%
- Fair odds
- ANA -115
- BUF +115 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BUF 3.0 – 3.2 ANA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BUF | ANA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1485 | 1448 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +18 | +3 | BUF: Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen: team allows 0.45 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈17 weighted starts) · ANA: John Gibson: team allows 0.08 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈21 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BUF +17 Elo | BUF 52.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ANA 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ANA 53.5% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| BUF | Stat | ANA |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 312.9 | Goals scored | 2.628th of 31 |
| 18th of 313.2 | Goals allowed | 3.627th of 31 |
| 24th of 31−0.3 | Margin | −1.029th of 31 |
| 10th of 3151.5% | Shot share | 46.8%26th of 31 |
| 28th of 3189.4% | Save percentage | 89.7%22nd of 31 |
| 9th of 316–4 | Last 10 | 2–829th of 31 |
| 20th of 319–12 | Road vs home | 5–1731st of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.