New York Rangers at Anaheim Ducks, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ANA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rangers- Chris KreiderGoals1
- Chris KreiderAssists2
- Chris KreiderPoints3
Ducks- Leo CarlssonAssists2
- Troy TerryPoints2
Scoring summary
- P319:24Jimmy Vesey Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: none5–2
- P316:07Chris Kreider Goal (22) Batted, assists: Mika Zibanejad (29)4–2
- P314:23Artemi Panarin Goal (28) Slap Shot, assists: Adam Fox (26), Chris Kreider (21)3–2
- P310:10Will Cuylle Goal (8) Tip-In, assists: Jacob Trouba (15), K'Andre Miller (10)2–2
- P217:58Vincent Trocheck Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Chris Kreider (20), Adam Fox (25)1–2
- P115:37Adam Henrique Goal (14) Tip-In, assists: Troy Terry (20), Leo Carlsson (10)0–2
- P10:51Adam Henrique Goal (13) Backhand, assists: Leo Carlsson (9), Troy Terry (19)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P10:51Adam Henrique Goal (13) Backhand, assists: Leo Carlsson (9), Troy Terry (19)NYR 0 – 1 ANA · ANA 53% → 67% +14ANA 53% → 67%+14 pts
- P115:37Adam Henrique Goal (14) Tip-In, assists: Troy Terry (20), Leo Carlsson (10)NYR 0 – 2 ANA · ANA 69% → 82% +13ANA 69% → 82%+13 pts
- P217:58Vincent Trocheck Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Chris Kreider (20), Adam Fox (25)NYR 1 – 2 ANA · NYR 11% → 26% +15NYR 11% → 26%+15 pts
- P310:10Will Cuylle Goal (8) Tip-In, assists: Jacob Trouba (15), K'Andre Miller (10)NYR 2 – 2 ANA · NYR 18% → 49% +31NYR 18% → 49%+31 pts
- P314:23Artemi Panarin Goal (28) Slap Shot, assists: Adam Fox (26), Chris Kreider (21)NYR 3 – 2 ANA · NYR 49% → 88% +39NYR 49% → 88%+39 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Ducks 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- ANA 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ANA 45%
- Fair odds
- ANA -113
- NYR +113 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYR 3.0 – 3.2 ANA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYR | ANA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1520 | 1452 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | −30 | ANA and NYR on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −6 | −11 | NYR: Igor Shesterkin: team allows 0.15 more goals than with its usual starter (≈22 weighted starts) · ANA: Lukas Dostal: team allows 0.28 more goals than with its usual starter (≈13 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYR +38 Elo | NYR 55.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ANA 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ANA 52.9% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NYR | Stat | ANA |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 313.3 | Goals scored | 2.628th of 31 |
| 11th of 312.9 | Goals allowed | 3.527th of 31 |
| 11th of 31+0.3 | Margin | −0.929th of 31 |
| 15th of 3150.8% | Shot share | 47.0%26th of 31 |
| 12th of 3190.6% | Save percentage | 89.8%22nd of 31 |
| 24th of 313–7 | Last 10 | 2–828th of 31 |
| 13th of 3113–11 | Road vs home | 5–1631st of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
NYR 1–0 ANA in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.