New York Rangers at Los Angeles Kings, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rangers- Chris KreiderGoals1
- Adam FoxAssists1
- Chris KreiderPoints1
Kings- Kevin FialaGoals1
- Trevor MooreAssists1
- Kevin FialaPoints1
Scoring summary
- P218:13Quinton Byfield Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: none1–2
- P214:39Chris Kreider Goal (21) Wrist Shot, assists: Adam Fox (24), Mika Zibanejad (28)1–1
- P119:25Kevin Fiala Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Trevor Moore (12)0–1
Turning points
The 3 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P119:25Kevin Fiala Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Trevor Moore (12)NYR 0 – 1 LA · LA 54% → 70% +17LA 54% → 70%+17 pts
- P214:39Chris Kreider Goal (21) Wrist Shot, assists: Adam Fox (24), Mika Zibanejad (28)NYR 1 – 1 LA · NYR 26% → 47% +21NYR 26% → 47%+21 pts
- P218:13Quinton Byfield Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: noneNYR 1 – 2 LA · LA 53% → 75% +22LA 53% → 75%+22 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Kings 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- LA 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LA 52%
- Fair odds
- LA -119
- NYR +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYR 3.0 – 3.2 LA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYR | LA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1522 | 1504 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +6 | +2 | NYR: Jonathan Quick: team allows 0.16 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈12 weighted starts) · LA: David Rittich: team allows 0.05 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LA +12 Elo | LA 51.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LA 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LA 54.4% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NYR | Stat | LA |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 313.3 | Goals scored | 3.116th of 31 |
| 11th of 313.0 | Goals allowed | 2.64th of 31 |
| 11th of 31+0.3 | Margin | +0.58th of 31 |
| 15th of 3150.8% | Shot share | 55.1%4th of 31 |
| 13th of 3190.6% | Save percentage | 91.1%7th of 31 |
| 20th of 314–6 | Last 10 | 1–931st of 31 |
| 9th of 3113–10 | Road vs home | 6–1330th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
NYR 1–0 LA in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.