Nashville Predators at Los Angeles Kings, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Predators- Ryan O'ReillyGoals1
- Ryan O'ReillyAssists1
- Ryan O'ReillyPoints2
Kings- Drew DoughtyGoals1
- Kevin FialaAssists1
- Drew DoughtyPoints1
Scoring summary
- P213:40Gustav Nyquist Goal (12) Snap Shot, assists: Luke Schenn (5), Ryan O'Reilly (23)2–1
- P28:52Drew Doughty Goal (10) Slap Shot, assists: Adrian Kempe (24), Kevin Fiala (28)1–1
- P27:56Ryan O'Reilly Goal (17) Tip-In, assists: Roman Josi (30), Colton Sissons (10)1–0
Turning points
The 3 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P27:56Ryan O'Reilly Goal (17) Tip-In, assists: Roman Josi (30), Colton Sissons (10)NSH 1 – 0 LA · NSH 46% → 66% +19NSH 46% → 66%+19 pts
- P28:52Drew Doughty Goal (10) Slap Shot, assists: Adrian Kempe (24), Kevin Fiala (28)NSH 1 – 1 LA · LA 34% → 54% +20LA 34% → 54%+20 pts
- P213:40Gustav Nyquist Goal (12) Snap Shot, assists: Luke Schenn (5), Ryan O'Reilly (23)NSH 2 – 1 LA · NSH 47% → 68% +21NSH 47% → 68%+21 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Kings 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- LA 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LA 55%
- Fair odds
- LA -122
- NSH +122 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NSH 3.0 – 3.2 LA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NSH | LA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1505 | 1507 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +1 | 0 | NSH: Juuse Saros: team allows 0.02 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈24 weighted starts) · LA: David Rittich: team allows 0.01 more goals than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LA +35 Elo | LA 55.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LA 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LA 55.0% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NSH | Stat | LA |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 313.1 | Goals scored | 3.215th of 31 |
| 13th of 313.0 | Goals allowed | 2.75th of 31 |
| 16th of 31+0.1 | Margin | +0.58th of 31 |
| 16th of 3150.2% | Shot share | 55.2%3rd of 31 |
| 15th of 3190.4% | Save percentage | 91.0%8th of 31 |
| 14th of 315–5 | Last 10 | 1–930th of 31 |
| 12th of 3111–9 | Road vs home | 6–1229th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.