Montreal Canadiens at Washington Capitals, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors WSH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Canadiens- Nick SuzukiGoals2
- Mike MathesonAssists2
- Nick SuzukiPoints3
Capitals- Alex OvechkinGoals1
- Dylan StromeAssists2
- Dylan StromePoints2
Scoring summary
- P314:01Juraj Slafkovsky Goal (9) Slap Shot, assists: Mike Matheson (29), Nick Suzuki (30)5–2
- P311:41Rasmus Sandin Goal (2) Slap Shot, assists: John Carlson (26), Dylan Strome (14)4–2
- P311:19Juraj Slafkovsky Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Jake Evans (12), Mike Matheson (28)4–1
- P26:03Alex Ovechkin Goal (10) Snap Shot, assists: Dylan Strome (13), Martin Fehervary (9)3–1
- P113:07Michael Pezzetta Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Rafael Harvey-Pinard (6)3–0
- P17:39Nick Suzuki Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Arber Xhekaj (3)2–0
- P16:42Nick Suzuki Goal (14) Slap Shot, assists: Cole Caufield (23)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P16:42Nick Suzuki Goal (14) Slap Shot, assists: Cole Caufield (23)MTL 1 – 0 WSH · MTL 45% → 60% +15MTL 45% → 60%+15 pts
- P17:39Nick Suzuki Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Arber Xhekaj (3)MTL 2 – 0 WSH · MTL 60% → 74% +14MTL 60% → 74%+14 pts
- P113:07Michael Pezzetta Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Rafael Harvey-Pinard (6)MTL 3 – 0 WSH · MTL 76% → 87% +11MTL 76% → 87%+11 pts
- P26:03Alex Ovechkin Goal (10) Snap Shot, assists: Dylan Strome (13), Martin Fehervary (9)MTL 3 – 1 WSH · WSH 9% → 19% +10WSH 9% → 19%+10 pts
- P311:19Juraj Slafkovsky Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Jake Evans (12), Mike Matheson (28)MTL 4 – 1 WSH · MTL 97% → >99% +3MTL 97% → >99%+3 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Capitals 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- WSH 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WSH 57%
- Fair odds
- WSH -124
- MTL +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MTL 2.9 – 3.2 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MTL | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1462 | 1478 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +1 | −2 | MTL: Sam Montembeault: team allows 0.02 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈18 weighted starts) · WSH: Charlie Lindgren: team allows 0.06 more goals than with its usual starter (≈17 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | WSH +48 Elo | WSH 56.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WSH 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WSH 55.4% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| MTL | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 312.8 | Goals scored | 2.529th of 31 |
| 28th of 313.6 | Goals allowed | 3.013th of 31 |
| 28th of 31−0.8 | Margin | −0.525th of 31 |
| 29th of 3145.2% | Shot share | 47.2%25th of 31 |
| 16th of 3190.2% | Save percentage | 90.5%14th of 31 |
| 26th of 313–7 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 31 |
| 20th of 3110–13 | Road vs home | 13–1113th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
MTL 1–0 WSH in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.