Montreal Canadiens at Pittsburgh Penguins, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PIT; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Canadiens- Kaiden GuhleGoals1
- Nick SuzukiAssists1
- Kaiden GuhlePoints1
Penguins- Marcus PetterssonGoals1
- Rickard RakellAssists2
- Marcus PetterssonPoints2
Scoring summary
- OT2:43Marcus Pettersson Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Rickard Rakell (13), Evgeni Malkin (24)2–3
- P310:03Jake Guentzel Goal (22) Tip-In, assists: Sidney Crosby (23), Marcus Pettersson (17)2–2
- P212:23Juraj Slafkovsky Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Sean Monahan (22), Nick Suzuki (29)2–1
- P24:05Lars Eller Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Valtteri Puustinen (7), Rickard Rakell (12)1–1
- P115:53Kaiden Guhle Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Mike Matheson (27), Cole Caufield (22)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P115:53Kaiden Guhle Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Mike Matheson (27), Cole Caufield (22)MTL 1 – 0 PIT · MTL 48% → 65% +17MTL 48% → 65%+17 pts
- P24:05Lars Eller Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Valtteri Puustinen (7), Rickard Rakell (12)MTL 1 – 1 PIT · PIT 33% → 52% +18PIT 33% → 52%+18 pts
- P212:23Juraj Slafkovsky Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Sean Monahan (22), Nick Suzuki (29)MTL 2 – 1 PIT · MTL 48% → 69% +21MTL 48% → 69%+21 pts
- P310:03Jake Guentzel Goal (22) Tip-In, assists: Sidney Crosby (23), Marcus Pettersson (17)MTL 2 – 2 PIT · PIT 19% → 51% +32PIT 19% → 51%+32 pts
- OT2:43Marcus Pettersson Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Rickard Rakell (13), Evgeni Malkin (24)MTL 2 – 3 PIT · PIT 50% → 97% +47PIT 50% → 97%+47 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Penguins 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- PIT 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PIT 58%
- Fair odds
- PIT -109
- MTL +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MTL 3.0 – 3.2 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MTL | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1464 | 1504 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | — | −30 | PIT on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −11 | +1 | MTL: Jake Allen: team allows 0.27 more goals than with its usual starter (≈13 weighted starts) · PIT: Tristan Jarry: team allows 0.02 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈22 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PIT +57 Elo | PIT 58.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PIT 50.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PIT 52.2% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| MTL | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 312.8 | Goals scored | 3.020th of 31 |
| 29th of 313.6 | Goals allowed | 2.75th of 31 |
| 28th of 31−0.8 | Margin | +0.311th of 31 |
| 29th of 3145.2% | Shot share | 51.9%9th of 31 |
| 16th of 3190.2% | Save percentage | 91.6%4th of 31 |
| 19th of 314–6 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 31 |
| 18th of 3110–12 | Road vs home | 10–1119th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
MTL 0–1 PIT in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.